Hostilities between Northern Star Resources (ASX: NST) and Elliott Investment Management escalated this week.

On Wednesday, Elliott publicly released a letter it had sent to the board of Northern Star, proposing six potential candidates to join the gold miner’s board.

It suggested Iluka Resources director Susie Corlett, former Anglo American CEO Mark Cutifani, former Arcadium Lithium CEO Paul Graves, former Detour Gold and MAC Copper CEO Mick McMullen, former Orion Resource Partners managing partner Peter Rozenauers and recently departed Barrick Mining Corporation chief financial officer Graham Shuttleworth.

“These director candidates would strengthen Northern Star’s board, bringing experience across operations, finance, governance and technical disciplines,” Elliott said.

“Elliott believes that – after multiple years of execution and governance failures – the company needs a substantially enhanced board that is equipped to support the incoming chief executive and to oversee an objective, thorough strategic and operational review.”

On Thursday morning, Northern Star announced it had appointed former BHP director Terry Bowen as a non-executive director.

It follows the addition of former Perseus Mining CEO Jeff Quartermaine as a director last month, as well as the appointment of a new CEO, Suresh Vadnagra, and the promotion of deputy chairman Michael Ashforth to chairman later this year.

Later on Thursday, current Northern Star chairman Michael Chaney publicly released a letter in response to Elliott.

He noted that Elliott’s 5.35% economic interest in Northern Star (through cash-settled swaps) was not currently accompanied by a disclosed shareholding or voting interest.

Since Elliott kicked off its campaign against Northern Star in early June, Chaney said engagement between the pair had comprised five video calls, several written exchanges and a private site visit to the company’s flagship KCGM operation in Kalgoorlie last week.

“From the outset, Elliott has made demands to which no responsible board would agree,” Chaney said.

“Elliott has also been unable to suggest any tangible actions which were not already being taken by the board.”

Board renewal

Elliott has been vocal on the composition of Northern Star’s board, but Chaney said the renewal process was already well underway before its public calls.

Chaney added that Elliott was informed that if it had any candidates for the CEO or board roles, Northern Star would include them in processes, but he said no names were provided.

“They told us they would not provide names of nominee directors unless we first agreed to a ‘framework agreement’,” he said.

“That ‘framework’ involved Elliott nominating four individuals without discussion with us and those individuals simply being appointed to the board by us (or another director they would propose if we had a genuine objection to any of the four that they nominated).

“We explained to Elliott that their proposed ‘framework agreement’ was unacceptable and would be at odds with appropriate governance. No shareholder or proxy adviser we have spoken to subsequently has suggested that we should have taken a different approach.”

Chaney said Elliott only provided names during a call on Tuesday, while Elliott was informed of Bowen’s impending appointment.

The company is currently in discussions with an additional candidate who has deep experience in the gold industry.

At a subsequent meeting between Northern Star and Elliott on Wednesday, Chaney said Elliott was thanked for its suggestions and was told the individuals would be considered under the normal processes applied to board appointments.

“Among other things, Elliott told us that their additional requirements included that we agree to a minimum of three of their suggested nominees joining the board,” Chaney said.

“We advised Elliott that we could not commit to this in the absence of a proper evaluation.”

It was after that meeting that Elliott sent its letter to the press.

Chaney noted the letter included a statement that Elliott was unable to agree a path forward with Northern Star.

“That is true, given the demands they have made,” he said.

“One thing we and Elliott are completely aligned on is the determination to provide shareholders with strong returns going forward.”

Elliott released a further statement on Friday, accusing the Northern Star board of “entrenchment”.

“Northern Star’s August 13 letter asks investors to trust the very directors who presided over years of profound underperformance to oversee a board ‘renewal’ process on terms they alone control, consisting of directors appointed solely at their discretion,” Elliott said.

“This is not renewal. It is entrenchment.

“Elliott remains willing to work constructively with Northern Star toward a genuinely strengthened board equipped to realise the company’s full potential – for investors, employees and all who depend on its success.”

Northern Star will release full-year results and 2027 financial year guidance next week.

They say the only two certainties in life are death and taxes, but there may just be a third: further consolidation in the gold space.

That’s certainly true in the Australian gold sector.

Just days after BlackRock portfolio manager Olivia Markham remarked that Australia lacked a true global gold major in June, the country’s largest listed producer, Northern Star Resources (ASX: NST), confirmed it had been approached by “several” companies about “various corporation combinations”.

While the company said talks did not progress, given Northern Star’s market capitalisation of more than A$30 billion, the list of potential suitors is short.

Chatter at the Diggers & Dealers Mining Forum in Kalgoorlie last week kept coming back to two likely candidates: Agnico Eagle Mines (TSX: AEM) and Gold Fields (TSX: GFI), and while senior representatives from both companies were in attendance, neither would take questions from the press.

Notwithstanding the talk around Northern Star, the largest deal in the Australian gold space so far this year is the merger between Genesis Minerals (ASX: GMD) and Vault Minerals (ASX: VAU), which is due to close in November.

Genesis trumped an earlier proposal from Regis Resources (ASX: RRL), with Regis choosing to walk away.

The proximity of Genesis and Vault’s Western Australian operations – as little as 35km apart in Leonora – is set to unlock A$2 billion of synergies, according to Genesis, against Regis’ promised A$500 million in mostly tax-related synergies.

“With the proximity, we’ve always understood Vault and the opportunity there, and likewise for Vault,” Genesis CEO Matthew Nixon told reporters on the sidelines of Diggers last week.

“I think Regis putting in their offer and going through that process ultimately put a timepiece on it, but that wasn’t the driving factor.”

Regis managing director Jim Beyer was gallant in defeat, congratulating Genesis.

“It’s just unfortunate. From our perspective, there were clear synergies for Genesis that we couldn’t realise, and for that reason, we just left it,” he said.

“Ultimately, there was more value for them than for us, so we just decided that it didn’t make any sense to do anything silly and start some kind of bidding war because the value just wasn’t there for our shareholders to do that.”

Where to from here for Regis?

Beyer said all the companies in the Australian space were always looking at each other.

“You can’t let your business development people sit around and twiddle their thumbs – you’ve got to keep them busy,” he said.

“We’re always looking at inorganic opportunities.”

Regis holds a minority 30% stake in the Tropicana gold mine in WA in partnership with AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE: AU).

At last year’s Mining Forum Americas, AngloGold CEO Alberto Calderon said the company may eventually look to sell its stake.

Beyer confirmed Regis’ interest.

“We love the asset. We think it’s great,” he said.

“If and when that opportunity comes up, that’s definitely something that we would love to be a part of.”

Ultimately, Beyer said deals would happen when they made sense.

“I’d like to think that maybe people recognise that we’re disciplined and we recognise value and we stick to our guns on value,” he said.

“We paid A$900 million for Tropicana, and there was a pretty fair section of the community that was saying, ‘you’ve overpaid for that. You’re crazy’. Of course, we know that those that were bidding for it and missed out, they all like to feed that mill because that’s just what people like to do.

“But here we are, a few years later, and we’ve got over A$1 billion out of it in cash. It’s great. It’s an absolute cracker.”

Beyer said in the case of Tropicana, Regis saw value that others didn’t see, but couldn’t say the same for Vault, which was why the company walked away.

“There’s self-generated pressure to make sure that we’re not sitting there and leaning back in our chair, but we would never feel that we’re under pressure to do a deal that’s not value-accretive for our shareholders.”

‘Like sharks’

Evolution Mining (ASX: EVN) CEO Lawrie Conway said price expectations for assets had cooled since gold peaked in January.

“People are still making good cash, and there’s not a lot looking to sell assets right now,” he said.

Evolution is still open to buying assets.

“We haven’t stopped looking. We just haven’t found anything, and when I look in the portfolio right now, there’s probably not an asset that we would want to sell for all different reasons – each of them have got growth opportunities and are making good cash,” Conway said.

Last month, Evolution announced the A$213 million acquisition of copper junior Carnaby Resources (ASX: CNB), which is considered a bolt-on buy to feed its Ernest Henry plant in Queensland.

Evolution currently has five operating assets and has always said its ideal size would be 6-8.

“We’ve never put out a production target – we don’t say we want to be a 2 million ounce producer – it’s more the margin that we generate,” Conway said.

“We do about 950,000 ounces gold equivalent when you take the copper – that’s pretty good, and we’ve got A$1.4 billion of cashflow.

“That’s why we’re not as concerned about the size and scale, more the quality of the assets.

“We have five operating assets, which gives us an option of up to another three assets that we can bring into the portfolio, and if they’re coming in like a Cowal or an Ernest Henry, you will get the production scale, and I think you’ll get further relevance from a global perspective.”

Most of Evolution’s smaller peers appear to be more focused on organic growth opportunities, though Westgold Resources (ASX/TSX: WGX) managing director Wayne Bramwell admitted no one could stand still.

“I think in some sense we’re quite like sharks – we’ve got to keep moving in this business,” he said.

“Growth is not free. At least we’ve got a business now whereby we can fund our growth aspirations, but we’re very careful about balancing growth and being pragmatic about capital.

“So, look, we do want to increase our production profile, and we’ll show the market our next three-year outlook soon, and that will show a trajectory that keeps this business going north.”

While the focus for Westgold is its organic pipeline, including a low-cost expansion of its Cue processing hub, Bramwell said the company had the firepower to act if there were opportunities that made sense with A$939 million in cash and investments and an undrawn A$600 million debt facility.

“Never say never, but very much the focus is organic,” he said.

The ASX’s fastest-growing gold producer, Greatland Gold (ASX/LSE: GGP), has been linked to smaller neighbours like Antipa Minerals (ASX: AZY) to fill its Telfer mill, but CEO Shaun Day said the company’s aggressive exploration program had doubled the mine’s resources since acquisition 18 months ago.

“We are spoilt for choice. I think the organic program we have is so compelling,” he said.

“Of course, we’re open to opportunities to improve that, but I think we have such a clear pathway ourselves, which is fully permitted, which means the timeline for us to execute the growth program and the increase in grade is potentially quicker organically than it is through acquisition.”

Similarly, Ramelius Resources (ASX: RMS) managing director Mark Zeptner said the company didn’t need to acquire anything after acquiring Spartan Resources last year.

“We can deliver that plus-500,000 ounces without doing anything,” he said.

“I think what I’ve learned is that any deals need to have a good amount of synergies, not just corporate office synergies, but geographical ones, and you saw that with Spartan, and you saw that with Telfer, and you see that with Leonora.

“I think as long as it’s got that. If you’re just getting bigger for bigger sake, the market is very meh about that.”

Developers vulnerable?

Brightstar Resources (ASX: BTR) managing director Alex Rovira said while the valuations of producers had pulled right back, developers were particularly unloved by the market.

“As a developer, it definitely makes your job harder and also increases your risk of takeover,” he said.

“You look at Astral Resources (ASX: AAR), Meeka Metals (ASX: MEK) or Rox Resources (ASX: RXL) that are our peer set, and we’re all nowhere near a 52-week high – well off it, but the gold price where it was six months ago.

“These projects have been meaningfully advanced. There’s been access to capital. People actually delivered value, and yet the business is worth 30 or 40% less, so it’s a really interesting environment.

“I think it definitely poses that heightened risk of M&A when you don’t want it, or at a price that you don’t think it truly reflects value.”

Rovira said the best takeover defence was execution.

“The best defence to M&A is getting your price close to NAV,” he said.

“If you’re trading at one times NAV, there’s no real benefit for someone to buy your business unless they can change it with synergies and change the cost profile, but if you’re trading at 0.2 times, like all the developers are, then that’s money for jam.”

Luke McFadyen, managing director of the fastest-growing ASX gold developer, Minerals 260 (ASX: MI6), said being named as a takeover target was a compliment.

“It certainly doesn’t mean you sell to the first person you ever talk to, and we certainly see a much higher value from where we are today, so you don’t let it distract you, but I see it as a compliment,” he said.

“Whether it gets written about by the media or investors or whatever, it’s part of having a great project that other companies will look at it and go, ‘geez, I’d really like to have that’, but it doesn’t mean you sell it for a 20 or 30% premium from whatever it is today.”

The next targets?

One of the hottest stocks in the smaller-cap ASX space currently is Benz Mining Corp (ASX: BNZ/TSX: BZ), which has more than doubled this year.

Its flagship Glenburgh project in WA has a resource of 510,100oz at 1 gram per tonne, but in June, the company announced an exploration target of 10.1-12Moz at 0.6-0.7g/t gold, including a higher-grade core of 6.1-7.3Moz at 1.7-1.8g/t gold.

Ramelius holds 11.7% of the company, a stake it inherited after Spartan divested Glenburgh to Benz in late 2024 in a scrip-based deal.

Zeptner said the project looked interesting.

“It’s not a bolt-on that you can truck somewhere else. It needs to be a standalone operation, and we know from experience at Rebecca-Roe, you need at least a million ounces, ideally more, to have a standalone project for your own mill,” he said.

“But they’ve obviously been very aggressive and they’ve changed the whole geological model.

“I suppose you could look at it from one point of view that Spartan could have still owned 100% of it, but then you could actually say, nothing potentially would have changed, and it still could be the old 500,000 ounce project.

“So, 11% of something that could be massive is better than 100% of something that was going nowhere.

“We tend to like get confidence in geology … but it’s good to have a foot in the door there on what looks like potentially quite a big project.”

Last week, another dual-listed market darling Southern Cross Gold Consolidated (TSX: SXGC/ASX: SX2) updated its own exploration target for the Sunday Creek project in Victoria to 10.4-11.9Mt at 8.9-12.1g/t gold equivalent (7.4-10.3g/t gold and 0.6-0.8% antimony) for 3-4.6Moz of AuEq.

Pierre Lassonde, Darren Morcombe and Kiril Sokoloff hold a combined 21.7% of the company.

Southern Cross president and CEO Mike Hudson said the company was planning to build the project.

“I’ve staffed it and brought people and families and everyone together to build this, so we’re very genuine about it,” he said.

“We are protected … a third of the stock is in the hands of three people and their supporters who say, ‘where do you find multimillion ounce 10 gram dirt in a first world jurisdiction where you’re not going to lose it?’ You don’t.

“So, why would we sell it at C$2 billion when we know it’s going to be worth X billion?”

Meanwhile, newcomer Waratah Minerals (ASX: WTM), which has 10 rigs drilling out its pre-resource Spur gold project in New South Wales, has been touted as a target due to market expectations of a multimillion-ounce resource

Waratah executive chairman Andrew Stewart confirmed the company had a data room and there was “a few in there” but firmly ruled out bringing in a partner.

“We’d never do a value destructive deal like that. Name a joint venture that’s added value to shareholders,” he said.

“For me, there’s no reason to do that. When you do a joint venture, you may not have technical expertise or you want to finance it.

“If I can go to the market and raise money, the last thing I need is someone owning 20% of the company that’s going to block a takeover – and they all want that because then they don’t have to do anything. They put their foot in it, they park it. We all know now that 20% on your register is a blocking share.

“The best for our shareholders is that you have a discovery, you push it up the Lassonde Curve, and you maximise the value by growing that resource as much as you can in terms of scale and grade.

“Then, if you are going to exit, then you exit the top of the Lassonde Curve, or you have a project that tips over the Lassonde Curve. You take it through the study phases, but it’s got to be a project that you can actually push forward yourself.”

Barrick Mining Corporation (TSX: ABX/NYSE: B) and Newmont Corporation (NYSE: NEM) announced on Monday that they had settled a dispute over their Nevada Gold Mines joint venture.

In February, Newmont revealed it had sent a notice of default to Barrick under the NGM joint venture agreement, expressing concern about the operation and management of NGM due to “a degradation in performance and subsequent asset value over the past six years”.

Under the agreement announced on Monday, excluded properties, including Barrick’s Fourmile and Newmont’s Fiberline and Mike developments, will be contributed into the JV.

With the resolution of all outstanding disputes and contribution of excluded properties, Newmont has provided its consent to Barrick’s proposed initial public offering of its North American gold assets.

The agreement includes enhanced governance provisions under a modernised JV agreement and provides for the payment of US$1.95 billion cash from Newmont to Barrick within 30 days to reflect the contribution of excluded properties.

Barrick CEO Mark Hill kicked off the company’s Q2 conference call on Monday by going “off script straight away to make the lawyers nervous”.

“I want to clarify a few misconceptions here. So firstly, the total value of that package is approximately US$4 billion,” he said.

“Obviously it includes the proportion of Fourmile, but it also includes contribution of Newmont’s properties, Mike and Fiberline, which I think is around 6.4 million ounces as well.

“It is also the cost of resolving historical disputes and litigation between the joint venture partners, and it also reduces the friction costs of the planned IPO, which will unlock even greater value for the shareholders beyond the cash proceeds from the transaction, and as we’ve said, they will be largely returned to the shareholders.”

Hill said Barrick and Newmont were now completely aligned as partners, which would allow for the optimisation of NGM, including potentially bringing Fourmile forward.

“NGM has a lot of opportunity. There’s been no increase in processing capacity there for years. We’re dealing with 25-year-old infrastructure, and then we have something like Fourmile that comes in, which is a world class asset,” he said.

“My discussions with Natascha [Viljoen] and Newmont right from the word go was how do we get this together so we can optimise NGM?

“And by optimise, I want to look at increasing processing capacity, I want to stop trucking ore all over the state and the only way I can do that is if we combine all these assets now and work together to see if we can justify a roaster or an autoclave and what we need to build.

“Where we’ve landed now, at least we’re in a position, in my view, to add a lot of value very quickly without getting into these disputes about allocation of resources, and obviously, there’ll be a lot of synergies as well … and that was obviously my ultimate goal.”

IPO advancing

With Newmont’s consent received, Barrick said it was on track to complete the IPO of its North American assets, comprising its 61.5% stake in NGM and 60% stake in Pueblo Viejo in the Dominican Republic, by the end of the year.

Hill said all operating and separation agreements between Barrick and the spin-off company had been completed and the company was close to filing formal documents with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

Barrick will retain 90% of the company with the proceeds to be returned to shareholders.

Bloomberg reported on Sunday that multiple institutional investors, including Franklin Equity Group, were opposed to the plan.

“With the IPO, we’re building the only major American pure gold company with high-quality, long-life assets, so this is exactly what investors, including some of the world’s fastest growing source of capital, are looking for,” Hill said.

Hill will be the CEO of the new company upon separation.

He said the recruitment of a new CEO for the parent company was advanced with an announcement expected shortly.

Hill confirmed there were both internal and external candidates.

“My preference is always internal, but at this stage we haven’t got to that conclusion yet.”

Guidance met

Barrick reported Q2 gold production of 796,000 ounces of gold, up 11% quarter-on-quarter and exceeding guidance of 730,000-770,000oz.

The result was driven by the ahead-of-schedule ramp-up at Loulo-Gounkoto, a faster-than-expected recovery at Pueblo Viejo following planned maintenance, and record underground tonnes at Cortez as Goldrush continues to ramp up.

The company also produced 56,000 tonnes of copper.

All-in sustaining costs rose to US$1866 an ounce of gold from US$1708/oz in Q1.

Net earnings rose 50% year-on-year to US$1.22 billion, while adjusted net earnings per share rose by 74% year-on-year to US82c.

Hill noted the earnings result was in line with consensus, despite some media reporting it as a miss.

The company generated US$1.7 billion in operating cashflow, US$1.12 billion in attributable operating cashflow and US$141 million in attributable free cashflow.

Barrick declared a quarterly dividend of US17.5c per share

In addition to the quarterly dividend, Barrick repurchased US$1.209 billion of shares during the quarter under the previously announced US$3 billion share repurchase program.

Barrick reiterated 2025 guidance of 2.9-3.25 million ounces of gold at AISC of US$1760-1950/oz and 190,000-220,000t of copper at AISC of US$3.45-3.75 per pound.

Attributable capital expenditure guidance was reduced to US$3.8-4.2 billion from US$4-4.45 billion.

Hill said the reduction was a result of a decision not to start building Reko Diq in Pakistan this year while the asset remained under review.

Lundin Gold Inc (TSX: LUG) says its 133,000m drilling program is continuing to increase the scale of the broader Fruta del Norte district in Ecuador.

Last month, the company reported new epithermal and porphyry exploration results.

Drilling at FDNS returned a best result of 11.75m at 108.61 grams per tonne gold from 177.8m, including 0.4m at 2030g/t gold, while FDN East returned a best-ever result of 3.95m at 236.62g/t gold from 280.75m, including 1m at 933g/t gold.

“Given that the FDN East’s footprint now extends approximately 500m east-west by 800m north-south and remains open in all directions, we’ve chosen to begin development into the ore body to accelerate our conversion and exploration drilling programs,” Lundin CEO Jamie Beck said during a conference call on Friday.

The company’s porphyry exploration program identified two additional copper-gold porphyry systems at Sandia Northeast and Sandia Southeast, increasing the total number of porphyry discoveries on the FDN concessions to seven.

The Sandia porphyry returned 551.3m at 0.42% copper, 0.08g/t gold, 1.62g/t silver and 17.05 parts per million molybdenum, or 0.5% copper equivalent, from 67m, including 307.95m at 0.51% copper, 0.11g/t gold, 1.71g/t silver and 14.14ppm molybdenum, or 0.61% CuEq.

Sandia is currently the largest and highest-grade porphyry system identified on the FDN concessions and now measures around 1.6km in strike, 700m in width and 1km depth and remains open to the north, east and at depth.

“The development of a maiden mineral resource at Sandia is currently underway, and we plan to release the results of that work in early 2027,” Beck said.

“We are nearly halfway through a record 133,000m of planned drilling in 2026, with approximately 54,000m completed to date, and our regional program is set to ramp up in the second half.”

FDN on track

FDN produced 118,994 ounces of gold in the June quarter at cash operating costs of US$1016 an ounce and all‑in sustaining costs of US$1176/oz.

“The second quarter finished strong, with Fruita del Norte delivering another quarter of solid operating performance,” Beck said.

“We expect Q2 to be the lowest production quarter of the year, and with the first half representing 48% of the midpoint of our guidance, we are well on track for the full year. “Second quarter production of approximately 119,000oz of gold brings our year-to-date production to approximately 239,000oz of gold.”

Full-year guidance was maintained at 475,000-525,000oz of gold at AISC of US$1110-1170/oz.

Gold sales were 110,385oz at an average realised price of US$4359/oz, generating revenue of US$478 million.

Adjusted earnings for the quarter were US$202 million, while operating cashflow was US$125 million and free cashflow was US$96 million.

Lundin ended the quarter with cash and equivalents of US$507 million, after returning US$293 million to shareholders through dividends and making annual government profit-sharing and income tax payments of US$221 million.

“We declared a second quarter dividend of US$1.08 per share, bringing this year’s total cash dividend to US$2.29 per share, and marking another quarter of returning 100% of normalised free cashflow to our shareholders,” Beck said.

“In addition to the cash dividend, we completed the silver stream for equity transaction with LunR Royalties, which was announced in the first quarter, the proceeds of the stream sale were distributed to shareholders as a dividend-in-kind following closing.”

The company plans to use its cash to start repurchasing shares under its buyback.

A mine-to-mill expansion study, which is evaluating opportunities to increase plant throughput beyond 5500 tonnes per day, will be completed later this year.

“Overall, we enter the second half in a strong position, and our operations, growth, and exploration programs, in addition to capital returns, all remain firmly on track,” Beck said.

Genesis Minerals (ASX: GMD) executive chairman Raleigh Finlayson says while the gold market is volatile, there is good value in gold stocks.

“The market’s very whippy at the moment,” he told a lunch in Perth last week.

Genesis shares are down by almost 30% from the January peak, despite the company delivering its two best-ever quarters so far this year.

“It shows the jitteriness around the sentiment in the market, particularly around companies that are cum-capex,” Finlayson said.

He added that a key driver of Genesis’ proposed merger with Vault Minerals (ASX: VAU) was reducing capex spend by eliminating the need to build the Tower Hill plant.

Ora Banda Mining (ASX: OBM) CEO Luke Creagh said gold was still the best place to be.

“You’ve got phenomenally high gold prices and everyone’s making good money,” he said.

“I think the issue is the investors, with global uncertainty on everything, are jittery, so it depends on what their investment thesis is to when to deploy and how to deploy it.”

Creagh said it was fine for producers as regardless of share prices, they would continue to build cash, but it was tougher for explorers and developers.

“My prediction is that might shape the next part of the M&A story, because the mid-tiers have a lot of cash, and assets are getting drilled out that look okay.”

Finlayson said it was difficult to pick the bottom of the market.

“But I think there’s a significant amount of opportunity in the resources space in general, but particularly in the gold space, because the gold price is still very strong – close to A$6000 Aussie – and yet sentiment is very whippy.”

Capex rising

Finlayson said one of Genesis’ peers, Ramelius Resources (ASX: RMS), looked oversold, with the stock down about 40% since January.

“They’re getting hammered in the market at the moment because they have capital ahead of them,” he said.

Ramelius managing director Mark Zeptner agreed that the stock was oversold.

“We do have capital, but so does a lot of peers,” he said on the sidelines of the Diggers & Dealers Mining Forum in Kalgoorlie on Tuesday.

“We’re not alone, but we seem to be getting crunched harder.”

Ramelius expects to go from 192,000 ounces of gold production in the 2026 financial year to 525,000oz per year from 2030, with mill capacity rising from 2 million tonnes per annum to 7.5Mtpa over that period by expanding its Mt Magnet mill and building the greenfields Rebecca-Roe project.

The company expects all-in sustaining costs to drop from A$1983 an ounce in FY26 to A$1890/oz beyond 2030, well below the peer group average of around A$2400-2500/oz.

“Whilst costs have gone up, we’re still going to be at a cost advantage to our peer group, and that’s not recognised either,” Zeptner said.

“We’re doing everything we can to try to realise that value.”

ASX gold leaders at the conference this week suggested the higher capex outlooks were an overhang on the sector.

Zeptner said Ramelius had built an owner’s team to execute on its growth plans, which also gave it an advantage over its peers.

He estimated that up to 10 gold plants were being built or expanded in Western Australia, putting timelines and a tight labour market under further pressure.

“I’ve never seen anything like it. Normally, in one year, you probably see two to three gold plants get built,” he said.

“That’s not even going outside the gold industry – it’s huge.”

Zeptner said delivery would be an important factor in winning over investors.

“People need to see it before they buy it,” he said.

“Unfortunately, part of our job is to convince people to get in now rather than on the way out.”

Keeping the faith

While geopolitical and economic uncertainty remains high, gold companies remain bullish on the outlook for the price.

“I think gold’s been attractive for 5500 years, so I don’t think one year’s worth of gold price volatility is going to change that,” Minerals 260 (ASX: MI6) managing director Luke McFadyen said.

“I think if you look at the size of gold – it’s a trillion-dollar market – so the volatility is just natural.”

McFadyen suggested a short-term period of volatility didn’t change the long-term outlook.

“When you’ve got a 20-year project like Bullabulling, it’s probably going to see five or six different price cycles from peak to trough, so you don’t ignore it, but you don’t let it distract you from the bigger picture either.”

Most banks are still positive on gold, including Citi, which on Monday said its base case was for gold to stagnate to even decline over the next month before rallying to US$4500/oz in the December quarter and to US$5000/oz by the first half of 2027.

Its bear case (20% probability) sees gold falling to as low as US$3600/oz in the current quarter before recovering to US$4000/oz next year, while its bull case (20% probability) sees it rebounding to US$5000/oz next quarter on a quick Strait of Hormuz resolution and the US Federal Reserve turning much more dovish than market expectation.

Greatland Resources (ASX/LSE: GGP) managing director Shaun Day said the pullback was likely temporary due to the Iran War.

“I think that’s best explained to my mind by saying there is firstly a bit of a flight to US dollars, but also a risk of 1970 oil shock-type inflation, which means that people want to be in US dollars that provide an interest rate yield as opposed to gold,” he said.

“I don’t think the Iran conflict has made the world more secure or more predictable or more comfortable, so I think gold probably has a really good run out of that.

“Although gold feels lower in markets now than it did in November 2025, the price is the same – it just feels higher when it’s going up as opposed to when it’s come off.

“But the gold price is still exceptional, and I think if this is as tough as it gets, the sector’s in an incredibly strong place.”

Agnico Eagle Mines (TSX/NYSE: AEM) has reported better than planned second quarter production, which led to record free cashflow generation and record shareholder returns.

Payable gold production for the June quarter was 855,816 ounces, up from 825,109oz in the March quarter and better than the 845,000oz flagged earlier this month.

The company said the strong operating performance was led by Detour Lake in Canada, Kittila in Finland and Fosterville in Australia.

Group production costs were US$1114 per ounce, total cash costs were US$1054/oz and all-in sustaining costs were US$1459/oz, with the latter figure down from US$1483/oz in the March quarter.

Despite a drop in the company’s average realised gold price from US$4861/oz to US$4483/oz, free cashflow was a record US$1.33 billion, or US$2.66 per share, while cash from operating activities was US$2.14 billion, or US$4.27 per share.

Quarterly net income was US$1.6 billion, or US$3.19 per share, while adjusted net income was US$1.54 billion, or $3.07 per share.

Agnico Eagle’s cash balance increased by US$352 million to US$3.46 billion at the end of June, resulting in a net cash position of US$3.26 billion with total debt outstanding of US$197 million.

The company returned a record US$625 million to shareholders during the second quarter, including a quarterly dividend of US45c per share and the repurchase US$400 million worth of shares under its upsized US$2 billion buy-back program.

“Our high-quality portfolio delivered another strong quarter, with better-than-planned production and disciplined cost control driving strong margins and record quarterly free cash flow,” Agnico Eagle president and CEO Ammar Al-Joundi said.

“The strength of our business and our balanced capital allocation approach enabled us to reinvest in future growth, enhance our portfolio through the completion of the regional consolidation in Finland, further strengthen our balance sheet and return a record US$625 million to our shareholders through dividends and share repurchases during the quarter.

“Continued progress across our growth projects, supported by positive exploration results, reinforces our confidence in our long-term outlook, while our strong financial position supports our commitment to creating long-term value and delivering strong returns to our shareholders.”

Outlook for H2

Earlier this month, Agnico Eagle reported that a rock mass movement of around one million tonnes of material occurred along the north wall of the Barnat open pit at the Canadian Malartic complex in Quebec, Canada.

The area affected was, at the time, subject to enhanced geotechnical monitoring and mining has been suspended while the company carries out geotechnical assessments and remediation measures.

Under the current remediation plan, the moved rock mass material will remain in place, and a safety rock catchment area and berm will be constructed along portions of the north wall.

A new temporary access ramp alongside the southwest wall was built this month and will provide access to a redesigned open pit, with final pit and remediation designs currently being refined.

Remediation work is expected to be completed in the current quarter, with mining activities anticipated to resume in the fourth quarter of 2026.

Agnico Eagle expects the event to reduce gold production at Canadian Malartic by 60,000-80,000oz of gold in the current half and by up to 150,000oz in each of 2027 and 2028.

Total cash costs at Canadian Malartic are now expected to be around US$1260/oz this year, up from previous guidance of US$1187/oz.

As a result, group guidance for 2026 is expected to be at the lower end of the range of 3.3-3.5 million ounces.

Full-year total cash costs and AISC guidance for 2026 remains unchanged at US$1020-1120/oz and US$1400-1550/oz, respectively.

Total capital expenditure for 2026 (excluding capitalised exploration) is now expected to be between US$2.6-2.8 billion, up from US$2.2-2.4 billion, following the approval of the US$2.4 billion Hope Bay development in Nunavut, Canada, which was announced in May.

The operation is expected to produce 400,000-435,000oz of gold per year over an initial 11-year mine life from 2030.

At Canadian Malartic, the first phase of shaft sinking for the Odyssey underground was completed this month, reaching a depth of 1586m, while the development of underground exploration ramps at Detour Lake and Upper Beaver advancing in line with plans.

The San Nicolás copper-zinc project in Mexico, a 50:50 joint venture with Teck Resources (TSX: TECK) received the land use change and the environmental impact assessment permits this month, though Canaccord Genuity analyst Carey MacRury suggested a construction decision could be delayed pending the closing of Teck’s takeover by Anglo American (LSE: AAL).

During the June quarter, Agnico Eagle increased its stake in Wallbridge Mining Company (TSX: WM) via a C$22.4 million investment, and last week, it paid C$60 million for a stake in Pierre Lassonde’s new float, Cadillac Mines Corporation.

Northern Star Resources (ASX: NST) reported that the A$1.6 billion KCGM expansion project in Western Australia had started commissioning.

The project, which has been under construction since mid-2023, is being delivered in two stages, with the initial stage replacing around 85% of the existing 13 million tonne per annum plant and more than doubling capacity to 27Mtpa.

The second stage, which is on track for completion later this year, will consolidate KCGM’s processing by integrating the Gidji facility into the expanded Fimiston plant.

The existing Fimiston plant will continue to operate through July and August, with the tie-in to the expanded processing facility planned for September.

The full ramp-up will take two years.

“I can’t understate how important this milestone is to the business at this time, and I’d like to acknowledge and thank our people and contracting partners who have completed this project on time and to a very high quality over the past three years,” Northern Star managing director Stuart Tonkin said on a conference call on Wednesday morning.

“KCGM, as the cornerstone asset of Northern Star, now set with production increasing, capital spend decreasing, coupled with a reducing hedge book, all point to significant cash generation in the near term, driving increased shareholder returns.”

Hemi delayed

Last year, Northern Star completed the A$6 billion scrip takeover of De Grey Mining, giving it ownership of the 13.2 million ounce Hemi deposit in WA’s Pilbara region.

This time last year, Northern Star was hoping to receive approvals for the A$1.3 billion development and start construction around now.

The company spent A$104 million on Hemi in the 2026 financial year, well below guidance of A$165-175 million.

Managed aquifer recharge trials will be carried out during the September quarter following agreement with Traditional Owners, with results expected to support the state approval process, engineering design and project scheduling.

A final investment decision is still about a year away.

Tonkin said the timing of approvals was beyond the company’s control.

“There’s no showstoppers in that, but it’s the process we need to go through,” he said.

He added that he was pleased with the relationship with Traditional Owners and the extra time for engineering would allow a high degree of accuracy.

“You’ll see the expenditure that’s been occurring to date and will continue is for the aim of narrowing in what that flow sheet is, what the engineering costs are going to be, and the commitments to enable our board to make an educated, informed, returns-based decision on FID,” he said.

“We’re utilising the time effectively to get that accuracy, but some of this delay is really outside of the control of the company, and we’re in the in the process of the approvals train.”

De Grey’s 2023 definitive feasibility study for an open pit operation at Hemi outlined average annual production of 553,000 ounces over the first five years and 530,000ozpa over the first 10 years at all-in sustaining costs of A$1200-1300/oz.

At a gold price of A$2700/oz, the DFS returned a post-tax net present value of A$2.9 billion and IRR of 36%.

The Australian dollar gold price is now more than A$5700/oz.

Guidance achieved

Northern Star already pre-released its June quarter results earlier this month, with 433,000oz of gold sold at AISC of A$2651/oz.

Group underlying free cashflow was A$206 million and net mine cashflow was A$443 million.

For the 2026 financial year, gold sold was 1.54Moz at AISC of A$2698/oz, meeting revised guidance of above 1.5Moz.

Net mine cashflow for the year was A$1.17 billion, including record annual net mine cashflow of A$609 million at Pogo in Alaska.

“Pleasingly, operational improvements were evident across the portfolio, with record mining rates at KCGM, stronger milling performance at Jundee, record quarterly sales at Thunderbox, and another outstanding cashflow performance from Pogo,” Tonkin said.

“At KCGM, we achieve record mining volumes with open pit material movement of 88 million tonnes per annum and underground mining of 3.2 million tonnes per annum, both demonstrating the calibre of our owner teams and the intensity of activity growing this premium asset.”

Northern Star expects full-year cash earnings to be A$2.86-2.95 billion, in line with FY25.

The company will release its full FY26 financial results and FY27 guidance on August 20.

“For KCGM, commissioning during August will provide meaningful operating data from the expanded processing plant,” Tonkin said.

“That information will allow us to better assess throughput, recovery, and plant availability, which will be incorporated into establishing FY27 guidance.”

Medium-term guidance for FY28 and FY29 will not be released this year.

The company closed June with cash and bullion of A$1.23 billion, after A$129 million of shares were purchased under the A$500 million on-market share buy-back program.

“Overall, we’re entering FY27 from a position of strength, the portfolio continues to generate strong cashflow,” Tonkin said.

“We’ve successfully transitioned the KCGM expansion project into commissioning, and we’re focused on delivering a safe and disciplined ramp up of what will become cornerstone processing hub within our portfolio.”

Northern Star declined to comment on the activist campaign launched by Elliott Investment Management last month, except to say that engagement with Elliott was ongoing.

Tonkin will leave the company this quarter, with Glencore executive Suresh Vadnagra to join as managing director and CEO from October 5.

Tonkin said it was his 50^th and final quarterly conference call presenting for Northern Star and thanked the company’s 10,000 employees and contractors.

“You are the true contributors to value creation. Keep your sense of humour, and thanks very much.”

Low-cost Australian gold producer Capricorn Metals (ASX: CMM) has outlined plans to take annual production to 500,000 ounces of gold per annum.

The company owns the Karlawinda open pit operation in Western Australia’s Pilbara region.

Karlawinda produced 123,589oz of gold in the 12 months to June 30, at the upper end of the guidance range of 115,000-125,000oz and within cost all-in sustaining cost guidance of A$1530-1630 per ounce.

An expansion at Karlawinda, comprising the upgrade of the 4 million tonne per annum plant to 6.5Mtpa, will be commissioned later this quarter and take annual production to around 150,000ozpa of gold.

Capricorn also holds the advanced Mt Gibson gold project, in WA’s Mid West region.

On Monday, Capricorn reported updated resources and reserves, economics for Mt Gibson and longer-term growth aspirations.

“These announcements are the culmination of a significant amount of work and progress at both our projects and mark a very important inflection point in where Capricorn is headed in the next five years,” Capricorn executive chairman Mark Clark said on a conference call.

“I think we’re on the cusp of a very exciting time for the company.”

Larger Mt Gibson

Capricorn had previously promoted Mt Gibson as an open pit development which would produce 150,000ozpa of gold at AISC of A$1650-1750/oz.

Today, the company released an updated prefeasibility study, which also incorporated underground feed for the first time.

Capital costs for a 5Mtpa operation were forecast at A$474 million, higher than the A$346 million estimated in the November 2024 PFS.

The project is forecast to have a 19.25-year mine life, averaging 190,000ozpa for 18 years at AISC of A$1870/oz, including 260,000ozpa from concurrent open pit and underground mining for four years.

“We have a development plan that allows the underground mine to commence contemporaneously with the open pit operation, allowing forecast gold production to ramp up to 260,000ozpa within two and a half years of the start of the project,” Clark said.

The study was based on an updated resource of 188.9Mt at 0.9 grams per tonne gold for 5.67 million ounces of gold, including underground resources of 9.6Mt at 2.9g/t for 886,000oz of gold and an updated reserve of 119.3Mt at 1g/t gold for 3.67Moz of gold, including a maiden underground reserve of 5Mt at 2.3g/t gold for 365,000oz.

Based on a gold price of A$5500/oz, the project has a post-capex, pre-tax net present value (7.5% discount rate) of A$6.1 billion, an internal rate of return of 124% and a payback period of 14 months.

“With our strong balance sheet and cashflow from Karlawinda, Capricorn expects to be able to fund the development of the project internally and the low operating cost of the project, we believe will see Mt Gibson become one of the standout gold mines owned in the Australian mid-tier industry,” Clark said.

The project has been delayed by the need to go through a federal permitting process.

Federal approvals were received last month, allowing state approvals to be finalised, with Capricorn targeting the start of construction in the December 2026 quarter.

Clark said the lengthy delays had a silver lining.

“It’s worth reflecting on the huge value to the project that the last two years of drilling on the underground targets has delivered and noting that a lot of this work would not have been contemplated for a number of years post-startup had it not been for the time we had available to us whilst we were progressing federal permitting for the project,” he said.

“I don’t think there’s any doubt that we’ve delivered a company-making body of work today that’s born out of turning frustration into opportunity, which is something internally that we’re very proud of.

“So, we’re in a position today where Capricorn’s production outlook is 400,000ozpa, which is a great position for the company to be in.”

Range 500

Today, Capricorn also unveiled its ‘Range 500’ plan to take production to 500,000ozpa of gold within five years, based on a 33% jump in group reserves to 5.24Moz of gold and a 29% increase in resources to 8.66Moz of gold.

The goal is underpinned by a potential second mill at Golden Range, 65-100km north of Mt Gibson.

Golden Range, with a resource of 1.38Moz of gold, was acquired through the A$188 million takeover of Warriedar Resources last year.

“This project articulates our belief that in the medium term, the underground inventory at Mt Gibson will continue to grow,” Clark said.

“We see the potential that we’ll reach a tipping point where we’ll have more underground inventory than we can process annually through the Mt Gibson mill, without constraining the open pit contract beyond disruption point, so this brings into focus the 1.38Moz of resources, tenure and processing site at Golden Range.”

Clark said it may make more sense to truck excess higher-grade Mt Gibson underground ore to Golden Range, rather than trucking lower-grade Golden Range open pit ore to Mt Gibson.

“Obviously, this strategy is built on understanding the extent of underground resources at Mount Gibson that will underpin it,” he said.

“We’re very conscious that it takes time to drill underground resources into resource categories sufficient for production forecasts.

“With this in mind, Range 500 reflects the board’s confidence to commit time and money to evaluating the non-resource aspects of a second process hub at Golden Range in parallel with underground drilling.”

A PFS on a second processing hub will run in parallel with aggressive underground drilling.

Capricorn is aiming to make a final investment decision next year.

“We really look forward to delivering the results of those work streams over the next 12 months to fulfil that aspiration,” Clark said.

Newmont Corporation (NYSE: NEM) reported strong second quarter results, despite a lower gold price.

Reported and adjusted net income was US$2.2 billion, or US$2.10 per diluted share, and adjusted EBITDA was US$3.8 billion.

The company generated US$2.9 billion of cash from operating activities, net of working capital impacts of US$90 million and reported record second quarter free cashflow of US$2.2 billion.

The average realised gold price fell to US$4414 an ounce from US$4900/oz.

Newmont produced 1.3 million attributable gold ounces, as well as 7 million ounces of silver and 17,000 tonnes of copper and remains on track to meet full-year guidance of 5.3Moz of attributable gold.

Gold by-product costs applicable to sales were US$1043/oz and all-in sustaining costs were US$1621/oz, a jump from US$1029/oz in the first quarter but below Newmont’s full year AISC guidance of US$1680/oz.

“We remain focused on controlling our absolute cost base to maximise margins and continue supporting strong free cashflow,” Newmont CEO Natascha Viljoen said during a conference call.

“As we signalled last quarter, higher oil prices contributed to the expected increase in second quarter cost.

“However, even after absorbing that pressure, both cost applicable to sales and all-in sustaining costs remain firmly within our full-year guidance ranges, reflecting the continued discipline and cost and productivity initiatives we have been implementing across the portfolio to make the work that we’ve been doing more tangible.

“We have parked nearly 50 mining production units across the portfolio without affecting production.”

Viljoen said more efficient pre-start activities at Cerro Negro in Argentina had increased underground productive time by around 15% per shift, while it was seeing milling efficiencies at Ahafo North in Ghana.

“Across the portfolio, we continue to reduce contract utilisation where possible,” she said.

“These are practical, site-led actions that collectively improve productivity and help offset external cost pressures.”

Newly appointed chief financial officer Brian Tabolt said a planned US$150 million quarter-on-quarter increase in sustaining capital was expected to result in moderately higher unit costs in the current quarter.

He also warned every US$10 per barrel change in the oil price equated to a US$60 million impact.

Barrick stoush unresolved

In February, Newmont revealed it had sent a notice of default to its Nevada Gold Mines partner Barrick Mining Corporation (NYSE: B) under the NGM joint venture agreement.

It came after Barrick announced a proposed initial public offering of its North American assets.

Newmont has a 38.5% interest in Nevada Gold Mines (NGM) in the US and a 40% interest in Pueblo Viejo in the Dominican Republic, both operated by Barrick.

At the time, Newmont expressed concern about the operation and management of NGM due to “a degradation in performance and subsequent asset value over the past six years”.

“We have actively engaged with Barrick over the last few months to find mutually acceptable solutions to our diverging legal, technical, and commercial views on the various aspects of the joint ventures management and past performance, the proposed IPO and the potential resulting complexities, and contribution process for all excluded properties, with the goal of maximising NGM’s performance both in the near and long term,” Viljoen said.

“We have remained resolute in protecting the interests and rights of Newmont shareholders throughout this process, while I remain hopeful of reaching a successful near-term resolution, we find ourselves nearing the end of this extensive direct engagement period, with several key issues still unresolved.

“Most importantly, we remain committed to fostering a strong working relationship with Barrick, playing a role to ensure NGM delivers to its full potential, and protecting and, if required, enforcing our legal rights enshrined in the JV agreement.”

Returns strong

Newmont declared a dividend of US26c per share for the second quarter.

The company has returned US$1.9 billion to shareholders over the past three months via share repurchases and dividends.

It has US$4.3 billion remaining under its current buyback program of US$6 billion.

Since February 2024, Newmont has reduced its share count by more than 100 million shares, or around 9% of shares outstanding.

The company ended the quarter with US$9 billion of cash and US$13 billion in total liquidity, with a net cash position of US$3.4 billion.

Sustaining capital guidance for 2026 remains at US$1.95 billion, with US$819 million spent to date, while development capital guidance remains at US$1.4 billion, with US$524 million invested year-to-date.

NOVAGOLD Resources Inc (TSX: NG) will acquire Paulson Advisers’ stake in Donlin Gold in an all-share transaction that will create a US$4.2 billion US gold developer.

Last year, Barrick Mining Corporation (NYSE: B) sold its 50% stake in Donlin to Paulson and NOVAGOLD for US$1 billion in cash, giving Paulson a 40% stake in the project and increasing NOVAGOLD’s interest from 50% to 60%.

Paulson founder John Paulson said he initially bought his stake to gain more exposure to gold.

“This was my dream from the very beginning to consolidate Donlin under one ownership, under NOVAGOLD,” he said on a conference call.

The consolidation announced on Wednesday will create NovaGold Corporation (New NG) and will be domiciled in the US and listed on the New York Stock Exchange.

“This deal, the second major deal over the last year, which is being done with John Paulson, is built on a 16-year partnership between NOVAGOLD and John Paulson,” NOVAGOLD chairman Dr Thomas Kaplan said.

“We literally exchanged the most difficult and challenging partner that I have seen in my decades in this business to quite simply the easiest one – one who always puts himself in the shoes of the other person.”

New NG will acquire NOVAGOLD on a one-for-one share basis.

Paulson and his affiliates will contribute their equity interests to New NG in exchange for shares, with the number of New NG shares to be issued at a 10% discount.

Current NOVAGOLD shareholders would own around 65% of New NG and Paulson would indirectly receive approximately 35% of New NG on a fully diluted basis in exchange for its ownership interest in Donlin.

Inclusive of its existing equity ownership in NOVAGOLD, Paulson would own approximately 40% of the economic interest in New NG which is inclusive of a 19.99% voting interest.

The New NG board will be co-chaired by Paulson and Kaplan and expanded from 10 to 11 directors.

Paulson intends to nominate Paulson partner Marcelo Kim as the second board designee to the New NG Board.

Directors and certain senior management of NOVAGOLD, as well as Electrum Strategic Resources and Paulson, which collectively represent approximately 28% of NOVAGOLD’s issued and outstanding common shares, have entered into voting support agreements.

‘Holy grail’

The Donlin project has resources of 40 million ounces at 2.22 grams per tonne gold, which sits just 7.5% of the project’s total land package.

An updated feasibility study was released last year, returning forecast capital costs of US$9.2 billion for a 27-year operation that would produce 1.1Moz of gold per year, including 1.3Mozpa in the first 10 years.

At a gold price of US$2100/oz, Donlin had a post-tax net present value (5% discount rate) of US$5.1 billion, an internal rate of return of 10.3% and a payback period of 6.5 years.

At US$4000/oz, the NPV5 rises to US$20.9 billion.

Kaplan described Donlin as the “holy grail” for mining investors.

“I do believe that after this transaction, NOVAGOLD will be seen by institutional investors who want extraordinary leverage to gold, but only in a jurisdiction that will allow you to keep its fruits,” he said.

“This will be seen as the greatest way to play gold development. The leverage to gold is absolutely unquestionable. You really can’t ask for better.”

The project partners have approved a budget of US$131.4 million for 2026 to advance the bankable feasibility study, permitting and exploration.

Federal and state permitting is complete, though the project requires several minor permits.

The BFS is due for completion in 2027, which, subject to positive economics and financing, will be followed by a final investment decision and a four-year construction period.

Once in production, Donlin would be the largest gold mine in the US and one of the largest in the world.

“Having the largest single gold-producing mine in the United States will be absolute catnip to investors who understand that they need to get back into gold or establish positions,” Kaplan said.

“We will be one of those beneficiaries.”

The world’s three largest gold producers have been making moves in the junior space this week.

On Tuesday, Barrick Mining Corporation (NYSE: B/TSX: ABX) paid C$20.88 million for 15.47 million units of Kingfisher Metals Corp (TSXV: KFR).

Each unit comprises a common share and half of a common share purchase warrant, with every warrant entitling Barrick to buy one share in Kingfisher at C$1.70 per share for two years.

The investment will give Barrick 9.9% of Kingfisher on a non-diluted basis and 14.1% of the outstanding Kingfisher shares on a partially diluted basis, assuming the exercise of all warrants held by Barrick.

Kingfisher owns the HWY 37 project in British Columbia, which it describes as the largest early-stage copper and gold project in the Golden Triangle, and the adjoining Forrest Kerr project.

The projects are southwest of Newmont Corporation’s (NYSE: NEM) Red Chris gold-copper operation and Saddle North project, and to the east of Newmont and Teck Resources’ (TSX: TECK) Galore Creek gold-copper project.

In January, Kingfisher reported results of 889.35m at 0.47% copper equivalent from surface at Williams and 425m at 0.4% CuEq from 534m at Hank, with the latter representing the discovery of a new blind porphyry system underneath the Hank epithermal alteration system.

The stock is up by over 340% since the start of the year, including a 20% jump on Tuesday.

Kingfisher president and CEO Dustin Perry said Barrick made its investment following extensive due diligence.

“This strategic investment is an endorsement of the prospectivity of our Golden Triangle land position and our technical team’s ability to execute,” he said.

“Post-closing, the company will have approximately C$47 million in cash, providing us with the flexibility to fund aggressive ongoing exploration programs aimed at delineating copper-gold mineralisation at our recent Hank porphyry discovery and throughout the extensive Golden Triangle land position.

“We believe the HWY 37 project has the potential to deliver multiple discoveries, and we welcome the support and mining experience that Barrick brings to the company.”

Under an investor rights agreement, Barrick will be entitled to anti-dilution and information rights in respect of HWY 37 and Kingfisher will be restricted from selling or transferring any interest in the project without Barrick’s consent for two years, subject to Barrick maintaining at least a 5% stake in Kingfisher.

Barrick will also be subject to a standstill, preventing it from acquiring more than 15% of Kingfisher for two years, and the company has agreed to an 18-month lockup.

Barrick and Kingfisher will also form a technical committee, with Barrick to provide technical support and expertise to Kingfisher for the 2027 and 2028 drilling seasons at HWY 37.

Kingfisher’s 2026 exploration program kicked off last month, with 15,000m of drilling planned.

Agnico active

On Monday, Cadillac Mines Corporation (previously known as Gold Candle), launched its initial public offering, which will raise up to C$415 million.

The Pierre Lassonde-chaired company expects to complete a concurrent private placement offering of 8.7 million shares to Agnico Eagle Mines (TSX: AEM) for gross proceeds of roughly C$60 million.

Cadillac’s flagship asset is the Kerr-Addison project in the southern Abitibi Greenstone Belt of Ontario.

The project sits between Agnico Eagle’s Upper Beaver and Wasamac deposits.

Kerr-Addison has indicated and inferred resources of 5.6Moz of gold.

Cadillac expects to list on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the ticker ‘CADY’ by October.

Also on Monday, Grid Metals Corp (TSXV: GRDM) announced it had entered into a definitive agreement Agnico Eagle’s wholly owned critical minerals subsidiary Avenir Minerals to form a joint venture over the Grid’s Falcon West cesium project in Manitoba.

It comes after Avenir first invested in Grid in October 25, participating in its private placement to acquire a 9.9% stake.

Avenir will acquire an initial 15% interest in the project for C$3.75 million in cash and thereafter fund its pro rata share of cost.

Avenir has the option to subscribe for up to 19.99% of Grid’s issued and outstanding shares, following the publication of a mineral resource estimate.

Avenir will have an option to acquire an additional 15% interest (for a total of 30%) in Falcon West upon completion of a preliminary economic assessment or adoption of a mine plan.

Agnico Eagle established Avenir in October 2025 as a dedicated vehicle to evaluate and advance critical minerals opportunities in the regions in which Agnico Eagle operates, with an initial geographic focus on Canada.

Earlier this month, Avenir completed the C$94.3 million acquisition of phosphate developer Fox River Resources Corporation and separately, was selected by the New Brunswick provincial government to negotiate an exclusive exploration agreement for the former Lake George antimony mine.

Newmont maintains Metallic stake

On Tuesday, Metallic Minerals Corp (TSXV: MMG) announced it had completed a non-brokered private placement with Newmont for gross proceeds of C$902,916.

Newmont subscribed for 3.22 million units at C28c per unit, comprising a common share and half a common share purchase warrant, with each warrant entitling the holder to acquire one share at C40c per share for a period within 36 months.

The private placement follows Metallic’s recent C$10.3 million bought deal financing, which was conducted at the same price.

Newmont first invested in Metallic in May 2023, paying C$6.34 million for a 9.5% stake.

This week’s private placement will maintain Newmont’s stake of around 9.2% in Metallic.

Metallic owns the La Plata copper-silver-platinum group elements-gold project in southwestern Colorado.

La Plata has an inferred resource of 181.4 million tonnes at 0.36% CuEq, containing 1.3 million pounds of copper and 17 million ounces of silver, or 1.45Mlb of CuEq, as well as a 45.4Mt subset containing 91,000oz of platinum, 121,000oz of palladium and 60,000oz of gold, totalling roughly 272,000oz of PGEs plus gold.

“Newmont has been a valued strategic shareholder since 2023, and we have appreciated the collaboration with their technical team via our IRA technical committee,” Metallic chairman and CEO Greg Johnson said.

“The fundamentals for copper and critical minerals remain very strong and underscore La Plata’s potential to emerge not only as a significant copper and precious metal resource, but also as a strategic source of critical minerals in the US that are essential to support advanced technologies, energy transition and domestic economic development.”

Alkane Resources (ASX/TSX: ALK) managing director Nic Earner says the company’s strong track record of delivery put it in good stead for the development of the large Boda-Kaiser project in New South Wales.

Alkane, which merged with Canada’s Mandalay Resources Corp last year, operates the Tomingley gold mine in NSW, the Costerfield gold-antimony mine in Victoria and the Björkdal gold mine in Sweden.

Group sales for the 12 months to June 30 were 165,196 ounces of gold and 1364 tonnes of antimony, or 169,827oz of gold equivalent.

“Apart from one year, where we missed by 2000 ounces, as a company, we’ve hit our guidance every single year for a decade,” Earner told a Melbourne Mining Club event this week.

While there’s exploration upside across all three of Alkane’s operations, the company’s big growth prospect is Boda-Kaiser, which is one of Australia’s largest undeveloped gold deposits.

Discovered in 2019, the project has indicated and inferred resources of 796 million tonnes at 0.33 grams per tonne gold and 0.18% copper, or 0.58g/t AuEq for 8.28Moz of gold and 1.46Mt of copper, or 14.7Moz of AuEq.

A 2024 scoping study into a A$1.8 billion, 20Mt per annum operation outlined production of 159,000oz of gold and 35,000t per year over the first five years of a 17-year life at all-in sustaining costs of A$630 an ounce including copper by-product credits.

At metal prices of A$3500 per ounce of gold and A$15,000 per tonne of copper, the project has a pre-tax net present value of 24% and would generate free cashflow of A$4.3 billion over the first 10 years.

At A$4600/oz of gold, those figures rise to 36% and A$8.2 billion, respectively.

Today, metal prices are roughly A$5700/oz of gold and A$19,300/t for copper.

“This is an economic deposit, right? So, it all becomes, how do you get this approved?” Earner said.

“We’ve drilled the lights out of this thing – this is all about the permitting. This is all about acquisition of land.

“People don’t realise, but in my time with the company, which is coming up 13 years, I’ve been involved in over 30 land transactions, and it continues. We’ve done four in the last year alone.

“Unfortunately, in the Australian context, in east coast Australia, if you want to be a miner, you also need to be a farmer, and you also need to be very astute in terms of your transactions.”

The perception of getting a project permitted in NSW has taken a hit in recent years due to the blocking of Regis Resources’ (ASX: RRL) shovel-ready McPhillamys development.

However, that decision was made by a federal minister, on the grounds of Aboriginal heritage, after the project had already been approved by the NSW government.

Alkane has permitted three projects in NSW in the past decade.

Earner said it was important to start environmental studies early and understand land requirements.

“You need to be doing all of that well and way more in advance than you used to have to do,” he said.

“We intend to be submitting this for approval late next year, and then that would add, in its largest format, 250,000 ounces a year for nearly 20 years, in half format, 150,000 ounces a year for 30 years.

“So, this is a transformational project for us that we’ve happily done a good deal of spending on, and then we now are taking it through approvals.”

Earner described Boda-Kaiser as a “sleeping giant” which was ascribed little value by the market.

Though the development of Boda-Kaiser looms, he said Alkane would consider further mergers and acquisitions.

“What jurisdictions are we considering M&A? Australia, New Zealand, US, Canada, Scandinavia,” he said.

“Anything outside of that doesn’t match our existing shareholder base and what their risk appetite is.”

In the meantime, Earner said Alkane would continue its track record of delivery.

“We’re not the most aggressive, but we deliver on production, so if we say we’re going to do something, then it’ll be a bloody big disaster that prevents us,” he said.

“We operate underground and open cut. The benefit of that is that we can pick up any new asset and team, and it’ll work.

“We expand our mineral resources at all sites. When we first started Tomingley, it had a seven-year life. It’s now been running for 12 years with another seven ahead of it.

“We don’t just operate. We build and we build on time and on budget. We deliver permits, which is a soul-destroying and necessary part of the business.”

Earner added that Alkane made sensible and accretive corporate investments, pointing to an early investment in Genesis Minerals (ASX: GMD), which was sold for a substantial profit.

The company currently has a 4% stake in emerging Western Australian gold-copper producer Medallion Metals (ASX: MM8).

Alkane had cash of A$432 million at the end of June, a A$104 million increase in three months.

“Above all things, we just make money, which is really nice thing to be able to say that we can do,” Earner said.

“And we’ll be talking about how we would return that to shareholders in the coming couple of months.”

Gold rebounded on Tuesday following weaker-than-expected US consumer price index data, which weakened the case for further interest rate hikes.

Headline CPI fell by 0.4%, marking the first monthly decline in just over six years, while the annual headline inflation rate fell to 3.5% from 4.2%.

“Within the CPI report, the weakness was broad-based and evident across categories including shelter inflation, education, transportation and medical care services, thereby providing some evidence that disinflation may be an underlying trend rather than noise,” IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said.

After briefly falling below US$4000 an ounce on Monday, spot gold rallied to close to US$4100/oz following the data release.

Shortly after, new US Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh appeared before the House Financial Services Committee.

“The members of our committee have no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation, and we share a resolute commitment to restoring price stability,” he said.

Westpac senior economist Mantas Vanagas noted that Warsh downplayed the significance of the softer CPI print, saying he would not want to place too much emphasis on one data point.

“Overall, his comments carried a hawkish tone, emphasising the Fed’s commitment to returning inflation to target,” Vanagas said.

Another risk to further inflation is the re-escalation of tensions in the Middle East.

However, Sycamore noted that despite the rise in oil prices and hawkish comments, the US rates market finished the overnight session pricing in just 6 basis points of rate hikes for the Fed’s upcoming meeting on July 29, down from 12bp previously, and around 33bp of hikes over the rest of the year, down from 44 bp previously.

Gold ‘oversold’

On Monday, Incrementum managing partner Ronald-Peter Stöferle, who will again be a keynote speaker at the Mining Forum Americas in September, said gold at below US$4000/oz was oversold.

“My message has always been over the last couple of months, we’re in a bull market, and this bull market is taking a breather, but we haven’t seen the top of this bull market yet,” he said during a webinar.

“In monetary terms, gold is still, I would say, fairly cheap at the moment.”

Stöferle said people should remember that gold rose by a “spectacular” 64% last year and had only fallen by 5.5% so far this year.

“I always compare it to, you cannot run up Mount Everest,” he said.

“You have to take your time. You have to get used to the altitude, settle down for a couple of days, and then start the next part of the expedition.

“So, we are now taking the big breather when it comes to gold, but after this spectacular performance last year, I think that’s just normal.”

Stöferle said Incrementum’s decade-end gold price target of US$8900/oz was still “very much realistic”.

“Therefore, I think we should all embrace this correction within the secular bull market,” he said.

Stöferle said the U-turn in interest rate expectations for 2026 was driving gold.

“Let’s not forget – we went into 2026 with the expectation that we would see one, probably two, rate cuts, and this has completely reversed,” he said.

While his comments were made before the CPI data was released or before Warsh’s testimony, Stöferle said inflation expectations had eased.

“This could be a driver for rate cuts, and we’ve got midterm elections coming up,” he said.

“We know that Donald Trump is quite vocal when it when it comes to lowering interest rates, and then there will be enormous amount of pressure on Kevin Warsh.

“But of course, he’s the new guy. He wants to show some strength. But from my point of view, we’ll see rate cuts rather than rate hikes.

“The market thinks that Kevin Warsh is the new Paul Volcker, but he doesn’t hold a bazooka – he’s holding a water pistol at max.”

Regardless of inflation, Stöferle said US debt levels would continue to rise.

“We shouldn’t really overemphasise the power of the Federal Reserve,” he said.

“I think if we zoom out, there is no way that Kevin Warsh can solve all those issues that the US has.”

While Bloomberg Intelligence’s commodities team believe gold may have peaked, they are split on the outlook for copper over the remainder of the year.

BI senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone likened metals to “stock market sock puppets”.

“My key theme I’m thinking about is what is the elephant in the room?” he said during a BI webinar.

“Number one, I’m seeing a pump and dump trend so far.

“At the beginning year, we had Bitcoin, US natural gas that were up on the year and then down. Now that includes gold, silver, platinum, iron ore, and corn.

“I’m worried that’s going to continue expand to the rest of the commodities, and the number one thing we need for that not to continue is the stock market has to go up.”

McGlone said commodities risked a 2008-like trouncing.

He said gold appeared to have peaked and if it got back to its 10-year moving average, it would be below US$3000 an ounce.

“It’s still a bull market, but the one thing I’m really worried about in the metals is copper,” he said.

“Copper has made a new high this year, but I show copper divided by the S&P 500 and it’s a complete dud.

“The problem I have with copper and all metals is if the stock market goes down, copper’s got virtually no chance, so if you’re bullish copper, you’ve got to have the stock market go up.”

Metal drivers

BI global head of metals and mining Grant Sporre had more of a top-down view on the metals market and was more bullish than McGlone.

“There were some very key themes that were driving metal prices prior to the Iran-US war, and it looked as though when we thought there was a resumption to normality or the slow opening up of the Strait of Hormuz, that those structural themes would reassert themselves, and I still think that’s the case,” he said.

“Obviously, we have to deal with the volatility of do we have a deal?”

Sporre said there were five main themes driving metals, four of which started with ‘D’.

The first one is decarbonisation.

“The oil shock, I think, has just reignited the metals green case,” Sporre said.

“I think over the medium term, the Iran war and tightness in the Strait of Hormuz is just going to play into that decarbonisation-electrification theme of most of the metals.”

He said the biggest beneficiaries were copper, aluminium, rare earths and silver.

Despite the war, Sporre said digitalisation remained a strong theme.

“I’m talking about AI and the need for data centre capacity builds, and that plays very much into metals demand, and again, copper, to a lesser extent, silver, aluminium, are all beneficiaries of that,” he said.

“We’ve seen how tightly correlated copper has been to, let’s say, the AI stocks or anything exposed to the AI stocks, and I think we’ll get times when perhaps we’re a little bit too bullish on all the chip makers, etc. and there’ll be a bit of a sell-off, but the whole digitalisation theme, as a sort of almost a third-order derivative, plays directly into the metals, particularly copper.”

Sporre’s third theme is deglobalisation.

“Call it political risk, call it the race for metals, and there are a number of aspects to this,” he said.

“One is there’s a duplication of supply chains, and that obviously is often more metals-intensive, and so that’s good for demand, but there’s also been almost a willingness by governments to say metals are now strategic, and maybe we need stockpiles of these metals.”

Sporre said the Strait of Hormuz closure only amplified the deglobalisation theme.

The final ‘D’ is de-dollarisation, a theme Sporre sees continuing.

“For the past 18 months, the dominant theme that has been driving gold has been de-dollarisation and central bank buying, and whilst I think that still stays – I don’t think suddenly overnight we’re going to see central banks become sellers,” he said.

“I think, overall, central banks still want to add more gold as a form of reserve, so the de-dollarisation trend continues.

“I just don’t think it’s going to be as strong a driver, and I think we’re moving into much more of a real interest rate kind of driver environment, and there, the outlook is a little bit mixed for gold.”

Sporre said he was cautious on gold though most of the positive drivers remained.

Sporre’s final theme for metals was supply.

“The metal with the most tightness, if you like, is copper,” he said.

“It just takes a long time to approve a copper project. It’s very capital intensive, and you know it’s in difficult regions, so structurally, the copper market is tight, and the mining companies have been relatively slow to bring on new production.”

Sporre said while the Iran conflict had disrupted aluminium, the market wasn’t as structurally tight.

“There’s certainly a tailwind for aluminium, but I think that quickly turns into a headwind, and then the copper fundamentals reassert themselves,” he said.

Copper’s fundamentals hold

While McGlone warned the entire commodities market would be “toast” if copper didn’t rise in the current half, Sporre said the fundamentals for copper remained positive.

On BI’s numbers, copper has been in a modest deficit for several years.

“The outlook for this year was – lo and behold – another deficit,” Sporre said.

“So, from a bottom-up perspective, copper looked still looked very well-supported.

“Did the price run away with itself? I think it did when everything moved in tandem at the end of last year and the beginning of this year.

“If you want to use [Mike’s] words – pump and dump – it was maybe a bit of that kind of scenario, but I do think now that we’ve seen a bit of a price correction, copper’s closer to US$13,000 a tonne and the fundamentals really stack up.”

Sporre said he was still grappling with how high inflation, higher interest rates and lower global growth should be a negative headwind for copper.

“I thought if growth goes to zero, there’s zero demand growth for copper this year, then we’re back in a slight surplus market, not massively, but slight surplus, so I guess the longer the Strait of Hormuz is closed or severely restricted, the more that undermines my relatively positive outlook on copper,” he said.

“But in saying all of that, I think what surprised me is that demand in China, despite all the negative property indicators, fixed asset investment still seems to do pretty well, so that does show that the demand in some of the newer sectors, it still keeps copper demand reasonably strong.”

Sporre added that operating costs in the copper sector had surged.

“Let’s say US$10,000 copper is probably equivalent to the US$7000 that we saw a few years ago,” he said.

“Even if oil prices come down, it doesn’t mean that inflation or that embedded cost is suddenly going to dissipate out of the cost base.”

Sporre referred to “geological inflation” including deeper deposits, longer haulage distances and lower grades.

“If you want to go to places where there are attractive grades, it comes with usually a huge amount of geopolitical risk, and not great infrastructure,” he said.

“The point I want to make is why I don’t think copper is going to back to the levels it was previously is because of that that higher cost support, and that I don’t think is going to suddenly disappear.”

Sporre warned the copper market was still at the whim of what happened in the Middle East.

“I do think there is a little bit of downside risk in the second half, but if it comes back quicker than we expect, I think then copper holds pretty firm where it is, and there may even be some upside.”

Genesis Minerals (ASX: GMD) has made a A$5.6 billion offer for Vault Minerals (ASX: VAU), potentially thwarting an earlier proposed merger of equals between Vault and Regis Resources (ASX: RRL).

The combination of Vault and Genesis has been long thought of as one of the more logical deals in the ASX gold space, given the proximity of the pair’s operations in the Leonora-Laverton district of Western Australia.

The two companies have history, having been involved in a drawn-out bidding war for St Barbara’s (ASX: SBM) Gwalia asset – which is now part of Genesis’ flagship Leonora operations – in 2023.

Genesis is offering 0.7629 of a share and A47.5c in cash for each Vault share held, implying total consideration of A$5.2741 per Vault share and valuing the company at A$5.6 billion.

It represents a premium of 14.5% to the implied offer price under the Regis merger proposal, 15.7% to the Friday closing price of Vault shares and a 17.2% premium to the last closing price of Vault on May 4, the day before the Regis merger was announced.

The total cash consideration of A$500 million under the proposed offer would be funded from a combination of Genesis’ existing cash and new corporate revolver facilities.

Genesis said the premia did not take into account potential synergies, valued by Genesis at around A$2 billion on a post-tax, undiscounted basis.

After assessing the proposal with their advisers, Vault said its board had deemed Genesis’ offer to be superior to the Regis merger.

Regis has until midnight WA time on July 13 to match the offer.

Regis acknowledged the Genesis offer and said it was considering its position.

‘Unique’ synergies

As well as around A$500 million of corporate and tax synergies, Genesis has forecast potential “unique” synergies over the next decade of around A$1.5 billion that could only arise due to the proximity of the two companies’ operations.

The enlarged Genesis would produce 600,000-700,000 ounces of gold per annum, all from 100%-owned WA assets, including 400,000-500,000ozpa from Leonora-Laverton.

Genesis said the transaction would allow ore from its Tower Hill project to be processed through Vault’s King of the Hills mill, avoiding the construction of the Tower Hill mill and expansion of the Laverton mill, which Genesis estimates would result in growth capital expenditure savings of A$715 million.

It would also unlock Genesis’ free-milling ore at its Bardoc assets via processing at Vault’s Mt Monger mill.

Genesis considers that there would be significant potential for additional synergies and operational flexibility which are yet to be quantified.

The enlarged Genesis would have a pro-forma market capitalisation of A$12.6 billion and pro-forma net cash of A$611 million.

Genesis shareholders would own around 59.8% of the enlarged company with Vault shareholders to own the remaining 40.2%.

Genesis intends to invite Vault chairman Russell Clark to chair the enlarged group with former Genesis chair Tony Kiernan to be deputy chair.

Kiernan recently stepped aside as chair to allow Raleigh Finlayson to move to executive chair.

Under the proposal, Finlayson would revert to managing director with newly appointed CEO Matt Nixon and long-time chief financial officer Morgan Ball to continue in their roles.

Genesis also intends to invite Vault directors Kelvin Flynn and Rebecca Prain to the enlarged Genesis board as the other nominees of Vault, while the remaining nominees of Genesis would be existing Genesis directors Gerry Kaczmarek and Jacqueline Murray.

Northern Star Resources (ASX: NST) has appointed a new CEO and chairman as it looks to fend off an activist campaign by Elliott Investment Management.

In May, Northern Star announced that managing director Stuart Tonkin would step down during the September quarter after 13 years with the gold miner.

It comes after the company slumped by nearly 25% in the first five months of 2026 following four guidance downgrades.

A month ago, Elliott released a presentation, slamming Northern Star’s “profound underperformance” and calling for board renewal, a full operational reset and a strategic review.

At the time, it called for Northern Star to hire a world-class external CEO with extensive gold mining experience.

It seems that Northern Star heeded that advice, today announcing the appointment of Suresh Vadnagra as MD and CEO from October 5.

Vadnagra, a mechanical engineer with an MBA, is currently head of Glencore Nickel and Zinc Industrial Assets, based in Switzerland.

Before Glencore, Vadnagra was the chief technical and projects officer at Newcrest Mining and was also previously a member of the executive team at Melbourne-based copper miner MMG (HKEX: 1208).

In addition to his base salary and short and long-term incentives, Vadnagra will receive A$5.6 million in cash if Northern Star is taken over prior to his start date.

Northern Star said Vadnagra’s appointment was the culmination of a comprehensive global search which assessed internal and external candidates.

“Suresh is an accomplished mining executive with the experience and capabilities to unlock the full potential of our assets and our people – from ramping up KCGM, progressing Hemi and optimising all of our assets,” Northern Star chairman Michael Chaney said.

“The board believes his broad operational experience and leadership qualities can deliver significant value for all of our shareholders.

“Critically, his track record of execution and deep commitment to safety will ensure that we continue the vital work of keeping all of our people safe and helping them achieve their full potential.”

Tonkin will leave the company during the current quarter with chief financial officer Ryan Gurner to act as interim CEO between Tonkin’s departure and Vadnagra’s start date.

Chairman change

In a letter to shareholders last month, Chaney confirmed he would step down as chairman following Northern Star’s annual general meeting in November.

Today, the company announced that Michael Ashforth would succeed Chaney as chairman.

Ashforth has been on the Northern Star board for two years as an independent director and was appointed as deputy chairman in July 2025.

The company said Ashforth’s background in governance, transactions, capital allocation and leadership oversight positioned him well to lead the board through Northern Star’s next phase of growth.

Ashforth’s previous roles include as partner of law firm Freehills, managing director of investment advisory Gresham Partners, executive director of Macquarie Capital and regional advisor at Goldman Sachs.

Elliott issued a brief response to today’s news.

“Elliott notes Northern Star’s announcements and remains committed to seeing the company realise its full potential,” it said.

“The need for substantial board enhancement and a comprehensive strategic review has not diminished, and we look forward to engaging with Northern Star’s new leadership on these topics and delivering the value that shareholders deserve.”

Chaney confirmed in his letter last month that Northern Star was keen to appoint as least one additional director with deep gold sector experience and confirmed candidates had been interviewed.

Guidance met

Northern Star announced today that preliminary total gold sold in the June quarter was 433,000 ounces, a 14% increase over the March quarter.

Argonaut head of research Hayden Bairstow said the result beat his forecast by 17% and consensus forecasts by 11%.

The June quarter performance took Northern Star’s 2026 financial year production to 1.54 million ounces, in line with revised guidance of above 1.5Moz.

For the Kalgoorlie Production Centre in Western Australia, total gold sold was 844,000oz for the year, with 468,000oz produced at the flagship KCGM operation, meeting revised guidance.

Following a three-year construction period, the KCGM mill expansion project, which will more than double plant capacity from 13 million tonnes per annum to 27Mtpa, is tracking to schedule and remains on track for commissioning shortly.

The consolidation of the Gidji roaster facility to the new Fimiston mill remains on track for the end of this year.

The Yandal Production Centre in WA sold 434,000oz of gold and Pogo in Alaska sold 265,000oz, in line with revised guidance.

Costs will be reported with the company’s full quarterly report on July 29.

At the end of June, unaudited cash and bullion totalled A$1.25 billion with no corporate bank debt.

During the quarter, A$129 million in shares were purchased as part of the A$500 million on-market share buy-back program.

Investors responded positively to the news with Northern Star shares rising by as much as 4.4%, outperforming its gold sector peers.

“The key near-term catalyst is the completion of the KCGM mill expansion, which would be a step change in production at the Kalgoorlie operations,” Bairstow said.

“The chairman and CEO succession was swift, which we view as a positive.”

Bairstow maintained his hold rating and A$22 price target. Northern Star shares traded as high as A$19.66 on Thursday.

Fourmile

It’s been described as the greatest gold discoveries of this century and Barrick Mining Corporation (NYSE: B) believes the 15.6 million ounces delineated at Fourmile in Nevada is just the beginning.

Barrick had 16 drill rigs at Fourmile last year, aimed at doubling the high-grade 7.8Moz resource.

Resources now stand at an indicated 4.6 million tonnes at 17.59 grams per tonne gold for 2.6Moz of gold and an inferred 25Mt at 16.9g/t gold for 13Moz of gold.

Barrick has ramped up exploration to 20 rigs this year with 120km of directional surface drilling planned, aimed at converting the exploration target of 30-34Mt at 15-16g/t gold, which could potentially see resources double again.

The current drill program is targeting 30-35m drill spacing for indicated resources and 80-90m for inferred resources, which translates to 370km of surface drilling and 80km of underground drilling by the end of 2028.

The 2025 preliminary economic assessment, released during last year’s Mining Forum Americas, indicated capital costs of US$1.5-1.7 billion for a 1.5-1.8Mt per annum operation to produce 600,000-750,000 ounces of gold per year at all-in sustaining costs of US$650-750 an ounce over more than 25 years.

Fourmile, where first ore is targeted in 2030, will be part of Barrick’s proposed North American spin-off later this year.

Cariboo

While Osisko Development Corp (NYSE/TSX: ODV) is moving towards construction of the Cariboo gold project in British Columbia, Canada, the company hasn’t forgotten about exploration.

Cariboo already has resources of 3.4Moz at around 3g/t gold, underpinning an C$881 million operation producing 190,000ozpa of gold at AISC of US$1157/oz over 10 years from 2028.

Osisko expects to have up to 20 drill rigs in operation throughout 2026, representing around 160,000m of drilling across Cariboo and regional targets.

The company last reported 11 active drill rigs, including four surface rigs targeting potential mineralisation below the current extent of the Cariboo deposit to depths of up to 1000m.

Last month, Osisko reported new results from infill and underground drilling.

Infill results returned 1.5m at 44.68g/t gold from 27.9m, including 0.5m at 133.62g/t gold and 2.5m at 25.78g/t gold from 41.3m, including 0.5m at 103.47g/t gold and 1m at 12.51g/t gold.

Underground drilling at the Lowhee zone returned best results of 2m at 31.64g/t gold from 50m; including 0.5m at 125.24g/t gold and 4.9m at 11.21g/t gold from 63.3m, including 0.7m at 58.19g/t gold and 0.7m at 17.57g/t gold.

O’Brien

In late 2025, Radisson Mining Resources Inc (TSXV: RDS) announced the expansion of its step-out exploration drill program at the O’Brien gold project in the Abitibi region of Québec, Canada, to 140,000m.

The expanded program, using up to eight drill rigs, marks the largest drill program in the history of the project.

The company expects to complete 72,500m of drilling this year and 32,500m in the first half of 2027.

In March, Radisson updated the resource at O’Brien to an indicated 10.37Mt at 5.08g/t gold for 1.69Moz of gold, up 82%, and an indicated 3.49Mt at 5.59g/t gold for 630,000oz of gold, up 8%.

It has set an exploration target of a further 5-10Mt at 4-6g/t gold for 600,000oz to 2Moz of gold.

Last week, Radisson reported 13.1m at 4.06g/t gold, including 1m at 23.79g/t gold; 13m at 3.52g/t gold, including 1.3m at 22.06g/t gold; 4.2m at 8.43g/t gold, including 1.1m at 26.08g/t gold; 4.3m at 5.38g/t gold, including 1.3m at 9.79g/t gold; and 1m at 9.9g/t gold from a single hole.

The hole intersected at least five separate zones of classic O’Brien gold mineralisation at 1720m vertical depth at “O’Brien Mine East”, the deepest yet extension of vein mineralisation beneath historical mine workings.

Boundiali

Aurum Resources (ASX: AUE) recently updated the resource for its Boundiali gold project in Côte d’Ivoire to 107.5Mt at 1g/t gold for 3.22Moz of gold.

The company, which recently welcomed Perseus Mining (ASX/TSX: PRU) as a 9.9% shareholder, has 16 diamond drill rigs active at Boundiali, targeting increased resource confidence, further resource growth and new discoveries.

All up, 100,000m of drilling is planned at Boundiali this year, as well as a further 30,000m at the 1.16Moz Napié project, 125km to the southeast.

Results reported this week from the BDT2 deposit included 6.54m at 13.36 g/t gold from 272m, including 3.7m at 23.32g/t gold, including 1.7m at 70.35g/t gold; 21m at 1.12g/t gold from 228m, including 1m at 14.99g/t gold; and 2.8m at 4.39g/t gold from 220.7m, including 0.9m at 12.68g/t gold.

An updated resource is due by the end of this quarter. The definitive feasibility study for Boundiali is due by the end of the year, following the recent release of a prefeasibility study.

Sunday Creek

Southern Cross Gold Consolidated (TSX: SXGC/ASX: SX2) is planning more than 100,000m of drilling at its Sunday Creek gold-antimony project, 60km north of Melbourne in Victoria.

The company has drilled almost 120,000m to date with results including 85 composite intersections exceeding 100g/t gold.

The mineralisation follows a “Golden Ladder” structure over 12km of strike length, with structures tested from surface to 1100 m depth.

Southern Cross has defined an exploration target of 2.2-3.2Moz at 6.4-8.3g/t gold and 0.8-0.9% antimony, or 8.3-10.6g/t AuEq.

An updated target is imminent, which will be followed by an initial resource in the first quarter of 2027.

Earlier this week, the first cut was fired as part of the development of a A$30 million exploration decline, marking the first new decline development in Victoria in more than two decades.

“From here, the team will drive the primary decline to establish underground drill platforms approximately 115m beneath surface, scaling us from the 11 surface rigs operating today towards 24 rigs working concurrently, and positioning Sunday Creek as one of the largest pre-development drill-outs globally,” Southern Cross managing director Michael Hudson said.

Guayabales

Collective Mining (TSX: CNL) is planning to deploy up to 14 rigs to drill 100,000m across three targets in 2026 at its Guayabales project in Colombia.

The pre-resource project neighbours Aris Mining Corporation’s (TSX/NYSE: ARIS) 8.7Moz Marmato mine.

Guayabales hosts the flagship large-scale, bulk-tonnage and high-grade gold-silver-copper-tungsten Apollo system.

Collective currently has 13 diamond rigs operating across the project.

Previous results have included 150.5m at 6.16g/t gold equivalent within 534.4m at 2.7g/t AuEq from the high-grade Subzone and 58.1m at 21.33g/t gold from the Ramp Zone.

Earlier this week, Collective announced it had discovered high-grade tungsten, gold, silver and copper mineralisation along the eastern contact of the Apollo breccia body with results including 27.35m at 1.68% tungsten, 11.62g/t gold, 54g/t silver and 0.43% copper, or 37.55g/t AuEq, from 300m.

Collective is planning to start construction on an exploration adit later this year and is progressing detailed engineering studies and permitting.

The adit will initially be used to construct underground drill chambers to test the Trap System, which was discovered in 2022 through surface drilling but has been sparsely drilled along a 1.4km mineralised corridor.

Oko

G2 Goldfields Inc (TSX: GTWO), which is soon to be acquired by G Mining Ventures (TSX: GMIN), has 100,000m of drilling planned across its high-grade Oko project in Guyana’s underexplored Guiana Shield this year.

Oko has a current inferred resource of 18Mt at 3.31g/t gold for 1.91Moz of gold and an indicated resource of 15.5Moz at 3.24g/t gold for 1.62Moz.

The most recent results, reported in May, included 84.5m at 3g/t gold from 915m, representing the deepest hole drilled to date by G2 and extending mineralisation by 140m vertically to 1km, where it remains open.

Infill drilling at the Ghanie deposit returned 20.8m at 9.6g/t gold, including 4.4m at 36.1g/t gold, while drilling in the “Border Zone” extended mineralisation south of the existing Ghanie resource, with a high-grade interval of 3m at 10.8g/t gold from 490m.

Eight drill rigs are active at Oko, focused on infill, expansion and discovery drilling.

The transaction with G Mining Ventures is expected to close this month.

Koné

While Koné in Côte d’Ivoire is under construction and due to pour first gold in the fourth quarter of this year, Montage Gold Corp (TSX: MAU) remains focused on exploration.

The company has completed 256,000m of exploration and grade control drilling since publishing its updated feasibility study in early 2024.

Since then, it has updated measured and indicated resources by 1.4Moz to 6.3Moz at 0.8g/t gold, representing a 27% increase in grade, and inferred resources by 1.6Moz to 2Moz at 0.68g/t gold, representing a 36% increase in grade.

It exceeded the October 2024 target of delineating more than 1Moz of measured and indicated resources at a grade more than 50% higher than the 2024 figure.

Montage has budgeted an initial US$14 million for 90,000m in 2026, focussed on infill and extension drilling of previously delineated deposits, the advancement of pre-resource targets towards maiden resource definition and the testing of new targets.

The company has intercepted mineralisation at 25 targets with a growing pipeline of more than 20 targets still to be drill tested.

Further resource updates are expected this year.

Spur

In early 2024, Waratah Minerals (ASX: WTM) kicked off exploration at the Spur project, which is just 5km west of Newmont Corporation’s (NYSE: NEM) Cadia operation in New South Wales, Australia.

The company had a strategy of targeting epithermal gold at the margin of a porphyry complex.

In August 2025, Waratah reported a hit of 208.7m at 1.17g/t gold from 514m, including 89m at 1.96g/t gold at the Consols discovery, giving it market momentum.

Since then, Waratah has reported 23 intercepts of more than 100 gram metres over multiple high-grade zones.

The Consols zone now spans more than 300m east-west, more than 400m north-south and over 600m vertically, while the Spur zone covers 1km by 250m.

This year, Waratah has 80,000m of drilling planned and has 10 drill rigs active.

New results released this week included 55.9m at 2.63g/t gold from 3.1m, including 31.9m at 4.45g/t gold, including 1m at 108g/t gold.

Bell Potter Securities is assuming a resource of at least 3Moz of gold.

Only 10% of a 50 square kilometre trend has been tested to date.

Bullabulling

In January last year, Minerals 260 (ASX: MI6) acquired the Bullabulling project in Western Australia’s Goldfields from China’s Zijin Mining (SH: 601899) for A$166.5 million in cash and shares.

It completed 117,000m of drilling last year, culminating in an update of the resource to 130Mt at 1g/t gold for 4.5Moz of gold.

The company has maintained its aggressive exploration program with 78,000m of drilling completed since December.

Ten drill rigs are on site, comprising four reverse circulation rigs, four diamond rigs, one aircore rig and one water bore rig.

Results reported last week included 20m at 3.4g/t gold from 93m at the 1.8Moz Phoenix deposit and 18m at 2.9g/t gold from 332m at the 630,000oz Dicksons deposit.

Most of the project’s deposits remain open at depth, which will be a focus of drilling.

A maiden reserve and prefeasibility study are due for release this month.

An updated resource, incorporating this year’s drilling, will be released in August.

Minerals 260 is targeting the release of a definitive feasibility study and final investment decision early next year, followed by first production in late 2028.

Kyzyltash

Earlier this year, Silvercorp Metals Inc (TSX: SVM) announced the US$162 million acquisition of a 70% interest in the Tulkubash/Kyzyltash gold projects in the Kyrgyz Republic.

The company and its free-carried partner, state-owned Kyrgyzaltyn, have already approved the US$166.3 million development of the first phase of Tulkubash.

As part of the phase two development of the Kyzyltash deposit, expected from 2028, up to 60,000m of drilling is planned this year, followed by the same amount next year.

Kyzyltash has a current measured, indicated and inferred resource of 5.5Moz at 2.7g/t gold, as well as more than 20Moz of silver.

There are currently 12 rigs drilling the Kyzyltash sulphide zone, including the Contact Zone and the Main Zone.

The 2026 program, comprising infill and step-out drilling, is aimed at converting the 1.57Moz inferred resource into measured and indicated, and to make new discoveries.

The drilling and study work planned will underpin the development of a 3-4Mtpa open pit and underground mine.

The above list comprises pre-production projects.

Some of the larger current drilling programs at operating mines include at Lundin Gold’s (TSX: LUG) Fruta Del Norte in Ecuador (14 rigs), K92 Mining’s (TSX: KNT) Kainantu in Papua New Guinea (14 rigs) and Greatland Resources’ (ASX/LSE: GGP) Telfer in Western Australia.

June has seen the gold price dip to 2026 lows and the forecasts for the remainder of the year varies between banks, though all are in agreement that prices are moving higher from here.

Spot gold briefly dipped below US$4000 an ounce this week, a price not seen since early November 2025.

The weakness, attributed to a cooling of tensions in the Middle East, the rising chances of a US interest rate cut and a pivot of investor interest into the SpaceX float, has resulted in several downgrades to H2 2026 forecasts.

Earlier this month, Goldman Sachs lowered its year-end price forecast by US$500/oz to US$4900/oz, citing the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut.

This week, Deutsche Bank reportedly cut its Q3 gold price forecast by 22% to US$4300/oz, though it sees gold rebounding to US$4800/oz in Q4.

More upside

While several other banks lowered forecasts for gold, their target prices are well above the current spot price.

RBC Capital Markets lowered its 2026 price forecast by 17% to US$4760/oz and its 2027 forecast by 19% to US$5250/oz.

“Our updated projections incorporate a pivot in our rate outlook to tightening monetary policy and rising yields over 2H26, a change versus our prior expectation of continued easing,” analyst Kaan Peker said.

“Near-term gold price gains are challenged by this potential further upside in yields, a function of Iran war uncertainties and rising inflation expectations.

“However, a resolution of these outstanding uncertainties is forecast to result in upside to prices, which we still forecast over 2027 versus current levels.”

RBC’s scenario analysis outlines 2026 year-end upside pricing of US$6200/oz and downside of US$4700/oz, while it maintained its long-term gold price forecast of US$4000/oz.

Meanwhile, J.P. Morgan Global Research still expects gold to average US$6000/oz by the end of 2026, rising to US$6300/oz next year, though those forecasts are 4-5% lower than its February 2026 outlook.

It cut its Q3 2026 forecast by 10% to US$5300/oz.

J.P. Morgan said one of the strongest drivers of the medium and long-term bull case for gold was central bank buying, though the strong pace set between 2021 and 2025 appeared to have cooled this year.

The World Gold Council’s annual Central Banks Gold Reserves Survey, released earlier this month, revealed that 89% of reserve managers expected global central bank gold holdings to continue increasing over the next 12 months.

J.P. Morgan head of base & precious metals Greg Shearer said China appeared to be making unreported purchases.

“Chinese net imports of gold have inflected higher, coming in at 317t in the first quarter of 2026, up by nearly three times compared to the previous quarter,” he said.

“Furthermore, the People’s Bank of China has ramped up its reported purchases, from around a 1t-per-month pace for the six months through February to 5t in March and 8t in April.”

The bank also noted that China’s top 10 insurance companies received regulatory approval last year to allocate up to 1% of their assets under management to physical gold, with speculation that could be lifted to 5%.

Shearer said Fed policy should shape gold’s trajectory.

“The most significant bearish risk to our view is a macro scenario where US growth and employment remain buoyant but inflation continues to accelerate, solidifying a Fed hiking cycle this year,” he said.

“A Fed that feels emboldened by stronger employment momentum and crystallises behind a need to fight higher for longer inflation could begin to crack investor demand.

“If it occurs, we would likely see a flip to more sustained Western ETF outflows, raising a persistent headwind for gold prices, particularly amid a dip in central bank buying intensity.”

BMO Capital Markets noted this week that after five consecutive weeks of outflows, gold ETF flows turned positive again last week, totalling US$1.33 billion, driven by Europe (US$890 million) and North America (US$378 million), following the prior week’s heavy outflows.

BMO sees scope for gold prices to recover, particularly if lower oil prices eased pressure on emerging market demand and provided room for a reduction in import duties in India.

“This would likely support a rebound in physical demand, while silver and PGMs are likely to continue to lag as industrial market balances loosen.”

It sees gold averaging around US$4625/oz in H2, down 5% from its previous forecast.

Despite heightened sovereign risk in certain countries, Africa remains an active place for new gold mine developments.

New developments since the start of the decade have included Endeavour Mining’s (LSE/TSX: EDV) Lafigué in Côte d’Ivoire and Sabodala-Massawa in Senegal, Perseus Mining’s (ASX: PRU) Yaoure in Côte d’Ivoire, West African Resources’ (ASX: WAF) Sanbrado and Kiaka mines in Burkina Faso, Shandong Gold’s (SSE: 600547) Namdini in Ghana, Fortuna Mining Corp’s (TSX: FVI) Séguéla in Côte d’Ivoire, Orezone’s (TSX/ASX: ORE) Bomboré in Burkina Faso, Predictive Discovery’s (ASX: PDI) Kiniero in Guinea and Zhaojin Mining Industry Co’s (HKEX: 1818) Abujar in Côte d’Ivoire.

A June 2025 report from SCP Resource Finance described West Africa as the most dynamic region over the past 15 years for gold discoveries, new mine developments and corporate activity.

SCP said the recent mine builds had outpaced discoveries over the past 10 years and had cleared two generations of projects from the pipeline.

“We think projects that can start building in the 2026-2028 window are in the sweet spot: we think nearly all the Africa focused producers will be or are actively looking for projects within this window, and nearly all of them have built mines recently, thus are not afraid of a buy and build,” analyst Justin Chan said at the time.

There are a handful of new African gold mines under construction and several rapidly advancing through the pipeline

Under construction

Koné

Montage Gold Corp (TSX: MAU) is progressing the construction of its 8.3 million ounce Koné project in Côte d’Ivoire.

The US$885 million Koné project is forecast to produce 301,000 ounces of gold per annum at all-in sustaining costs of US$1195 an ounce in the first 10 years of a 16-year mine life.

Based on a US$4000/oz gold price, the 2024 updated feasibility study returned a post-tax net present value (5% discount rate) of US$4.8 billion and internal rate of return of 93.9%.

As of March 31, over 10.4 million hours had been worked on site by more than 3500 employees and contractors.

The company had spent US$636.5 million of the budget.

Earlier this week, Montage confirmed that Koné remained on budget and ahead of schedule with the first gold pour targeted for late in the December 2026 quarter.

Twin Hills

Twin Hills in Namibia is being developed by Shanjin International Gold Co (SZ: 000975) following its C$368 million of Osino Resources in 2024.

According to the 2023 definitive feasibility study, the project has capital costs of US$475 million and is expected to produce 162,000ozpa of gold over 13 years.

At a gold price of US$1950/oz, the project has a post-tax NPV5 of US$656 million, IRR of 36% and a payback period of 1.9 years.

Post-tax life-of-mine free cashflow was forecast at US$958 million.

The project started construction in September 2025, with first gold expected in the first quarter of 2027.

It will be Namibia’s third gold mine.

Nyanzaga

Perseus’ Nyanzaga project represents the first major gold mine development in Tanzania in 17 years.

A former Barrick project, Perseus acquired Nyanzaga via the A$276 million takeover of OreCorp in 2024.

The company wasted no time in kicking off the US$523 million development, with 48% completion as of the end of March with first gold expected in January 2027.

The project will then ramp up to 200,000ozpa from the 2028 financial year until FY41 at life-of-mine all-in-costs of US$1621/oz.

Nyanzaga has a post-tax NPV10 of US$864 million and IRR of 28.8%, based on a US$3000/oz gold price.

The addition of the mine will push Perseus’ group production profile to as high as 630,000oz of gold in FY29.

Kurmuk

Pre-commissioning activities at Allied Gold Corporation’s (TSX: AAUC) Kurmuk gold project in Ethiopia began in the second quarter, with first gold expected in mid-2026.

Following start-up, Kurmuk is expected to produce an average of 290,000ozpa of gold during the first four years and 240,000ozpa over the life of mine at AISC of US$950/oz.

Financial modelling in 2022 showed an after-tax NPV5 of US$548 million with an IRR of 25% at a gold price of US$1568/oz.

The project remains on schedule and within its US$717 million budget.

Allied, which is subject to a C$5.5 billion cash takeover offer from Zijin Gold International Company (HK: 2259), reported this month that the project was meeting key execution milestones.

Doropo

In March, Resolute Mining (ASX/LSE: RSG) made a final investment decision for its Doropo project in Côte d’Ivoire.

Capital costs are US$516 million for a 13-year operation that will produce 204,000ozpa of gold at AISC of US$1360/oz over the first five years, generating EBITDA of US$554 million and post-tax free cashflow of US$419 million.

Average life-of-mine production is estimated at 169,000ozpa at AISC of US$1360/oz.

At a US$4000/oz gold price, Doropo has a post-tax NPV5 of US$2.5 billion, IRR of 72% and a payback period of just over a year.

First gold is expected in mid-2028.

Baomahun

The Baomahun gold project in Sierra Leone is being developed by private company FG Gold and is set to be the country’s first large-scale gold mine.

The 5.8Moz project is set to produce 184,000ozpa of gold in the first five years of its life.

While the timing of first gold remains unclear, in December, FG announced that it had achieved financial close and the first drawdown on its US$330 million senior debt financing with Africa Finance Corporation (AFC) and the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank), completing the project’s funding.

The senior facility complemented AFC’s initial US$100 million investment in gold streaming and mezzanine commitments.

Kobada

Toubani Resources (ASX: TRE) broke ground on the US$216 million Kobada project in Mali in March.

It comes after the company agreed terms with the Malian government in January and secured US$83.5 million in debt facilities from Coris Bank International.

Toubani earlier secured an US$80.0 million gold streaming deal with Eagle Eye Assets.

The company is targeting first gold in the third quarter of 2027 with Kobada to ramp up to produce 162,000ozpa at AISC of US$1317/oz.

At US$3000/oz, the project generates a post-tax NPV8 of US$951 million, an IRR of 79% and a payback period of 1.25 years.

Average annual operating cashflow is forecast to be US$211 million.

Tulu Kapi

KEFI Gold and Copper (AIM: KEFI) recently started construction of its 86%-owned Tulu Kapi gold project in Ethiopia after the company secured US$355 million in funding.

Production is expected to average 166,000ozpa of gold at AISC of around US$1200/oz from 2028.

Based on gold prices of US$3000-5000/oz, the project is forecast to generate average EBITDA of around US$355-697 million per annum over the first three years of production.

Total net cashflow over seven years is estimated at US$1.8-3.4 billion at gold prices of US$3000-5000/oz.

This week, KEFI signed the project’s largest operational contract, the mining services agreement, with BCM Group for the provision of services valued at more than US$400 million over the initial nine-year mine life.

Approaching FID

Bankan

The exploitation permit for Predictive Discovery’s Bankan project in Guinea is said to be imminent, which will pave the way for a final investment decision.

Once received, the US$463 million project will have a 24-month construction period.

Bankan is expected to produce around 250,000ozpa of gold over 12.2 years at AISC of US$1057/oz.

Based on a long-term consensus gold price of US$2400/oz, the project has a post-tax NPV5 of US$1.6 billion, IRR of 46% and a payback period of less than two years.

Using a gold price of US$3300/oz increases the NPV to US$2.9 billion, the IRR to 73% and reduces the payback period to just over a year.

Diamba Sud

Earlier this week, Fortuna announced that it had received the environmental decree from Senegal’s Ministry of Environment and Ecological Transition approving the Environmental and Social Impact Assessment for the Diamba Sud gold mine, paving the way for a grant of a mining permit.

The company is already advancing early works, including camp construction, ahead of a final investment decision in mid-2026.

The October 2025 preliminary economic assessment for Diamba Sud returned a post-tax IRR of 72% and NPV5 of US$563 million, based on a US$2750/oz gold price.

During the first three years of production, Diamba Sud is projected to deliver an average of 147,000ozpa at AISC of US$904/oz.

A feasibility study is well advanced with a 2026 project budget of US$100 million.

Assafou

In April, Endeavour released a DFS for its Assafou project in Côte d’Ivoire.

The company said the project had the potential to be a cornerstone asset with average production of more than 320,000ozpa at AISC of US$1026/oz over the first eight years of a 16-year mine life, based on reserves of 4.4Moz.

The study returned a post-tax NPV5 of US$2.1 billion and IRR of 28%, based on a conservative gold price of US$2500/oz, increasing to US$5.1 billion and 55% at a gold price of US$4000/oz.

Upfront capital costs are forecast at US$1.06 billion.

Early works have been launched including long-lead orders, detailed engineering and design, and key tenders.

A final investment decision is targeted before the end of this year, which will be followed by a 24 to 30-month construction period.

Studies advancing

Kokoseb

Wia Gold (ASX: WIA), chaired by Centamin founder Josef El-Raghy, is working on a DFS for the Kokoseb gold project in Namibia, which is due for completion by the end of this year.

The scoping study for the 2.93Moz project outlined an 11-year mine life with average production of 177,000ozpa in the first five years.

At a US$3450/oz gold price, the project has a post-tax NPV5 of US$1.26 billion.

Afema

On Wednesday, Turaco Gold (ASX: TCG) announced the results of a prefeasibility study for the Afema project in southeast Côte d’Ivoire, as well as a maiden 1.91Moz reserve.

The US$410 million project is expected to produce around 200,000ozpa of gold over a 10.3-year mine life from a conventional open pit operation, including 230,000oz in the first year.

At a US$3500/oz gold price, the project has a post-tax NPV5 of US$2.1 billion, IRR of 79% per annum and payback of 13 months.

Turaco is targeting the completion of a DFS in the June quarter of 2027 and first gold production in 2029.

Boundiali

Last week, Aurum Resources (ASX: AUE) released a PFS for its Boundiali gold project in northern Côte d’Ivoire.

The project has capital costs of US$342 million and a post-tax NPV5 of US$1.5 billion and an IRR of 119% at US$4076/oz gold.

Five open pits are expected to produce 1.5Moz over 11 years, with 201,000oz produced in the first year.

The company will move to a DFS with first gold targeted in the first half of 2028.

The copper price remains at close to record highs, despite some concerns about global growth.

The copper price reached US$6.63 per pound last week and remains at around US$6.35/lb.

“I think what’s really driving it is growing recognition that copper is really a critical material for a number of very important industries that are related to national security and energy security,” Sprott Asset Management CEO John Ciampaglia told the Bloor Street Capital Virtual Copper Conference.

“And those are everything from AI data centres, which are very copper intensive, to energy infrastructure systems, electric vehicles, other technologies.

“If you think about anything that has to move an electron through cable or wire, it involves copper, so it’s very important.”

Over the past 100 years, copper demand has roughly doubled every 25 years, a pattern which Ciampaglia believes remains on track.

He pointed out that it wasn’t just data centre demand driving copper but traditional electronics like whitegoods.

“People get very excited about electric vehicles, the copper intensity of those AI data centres, but it’s a lot of just very basic things that we take for granted every day, where hundreds of millions of people in the world want to enjoy the privileges of having a washer, dryer, or air conditioner,” he said.

“Those are all very copper intensive.”

The copper price has proved to be resilient in the face of concerns about a global recession.

“People call it Dr Copper, and they use that expression to describe copper as a barometer for the health of the global economy, so if the global economy wasn’t feeling well, for whatever reason, recessions, the price of copper would fall,” Ciampaglia said.

“What you’re starting to see is copper kind of beating to its own drum and decoupling from softer economic growth around the world, and that’s because copper is becoming less important as a traditional industrial metal and more important for these kind of new technologies and new sectors of the economy, so that old relationship I think is starting to fade away.”

Supply remains difficult

Global copper supply has continued to experience disruptions due to the mudslide at Grasberg in Indonesia and seismic activity at Kamoa-Kakula in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Ciampaglia said a lot of the easy copper had already been mined and newer supply would likely come from more geopolitically or socially challenging places.

“The copper in the ground is just going to take more work and become more expensive to actually extract it, and I think that’s one of the key signals why copper has been very resilient and also has kind of really decoupled from other more historically industrial metals,” he said.

Lead times for large copper mines have blown out to 15-20 years.

“But also, the capital expenditure to build these projects. It’s not a US$1-2 billion endeavour. Some of these projects are US$15-20 billion to build, and you can imagine, as stewards of shareholder capital, management teams at these copper companies are being very disciplined and careful not to bring on capacity, unless they believe demand is going to be there,” Ciampaglia said.

“Obviously the pricing is going to be durable in order to justify these big investments, and that math is starting to happen.

“People talk about copper being at an all-time high – that’s great – but think about it in inflation-adjusted terms.

“Obviously, the copper price is higher than the last cycle, but in inflation-adjusted terms, we’re still at much lower levels, so we think there’s more room to incentivise the new production that we ultimately will need to bring on in order to rebalance the market.”

New player

The newest global copper developer is Ross Beaty’s Lumina Metals Corp (TSX: LMCU), which listed in Toronto last month after a C$421.2 million initial public offering.

The company was formed 15 years ago and has been privately funded, discovering three copper-silver projects in Poland.

“When we came in in 2011, we realised that the country had lots of potential for copper,” Beaty told the conference.

“It was expensive work. We spent about C$150 million discovering the three deposits that we have right now, and we’ve outlined what is actually probably the world’s largest undeveloped silver and copper deposit called Nowa Sól, as well as two other deposits, which have been less explored, so it’s got world-class deposits.”

Nowa Sól has measured and indicated resources of 604 million tonnes at 1.24% copper and 38 grams per tonne silver, as well as an additional 112Mt of inferred resources.

The project contains 8.7Mt of copper and 847 million ounces of silver.

A preliminary economic assessment returned a post-tax net present value (7% discount rate) of US$1.6 billion and an internal rate of return of 10.8%.

Lumina formally kicked off a prefeasibility study last month, led by Fluor Corporation, with a targeted completion date of the second half of next year.

At the start of May, Lumina entered into a letter of intent with Polish state-owned miner KGHM Polska Miedź to establish a framework for discussions regarding possible strategic directions of cooperation and potential supply of copper concentrate from the Nowa Sól project to KGHM’s copper smelters.

Beaty holds 36% of the company, which has a market capitalisation of C$1.1 billion.

“Lumina Metals is going to be my last company, so I hope we go out with a bang,” he said.