Can the Gold Sector Reverse Declining Discovery Rates?
Exploration likely to increase in line with the rising gold price
The latest data from S&P Global Commodity Insights shows that gold discovery rates continue to decline.
According to the firm’s annual analysis of major gold discoveries (of at least 2 million ounces), 353 new gold deposits hosting 3 billion ounces of reserves, resources and past production was discovered between 1990 and 2024.
While that figure represented a 3%, or 82Moz, increase on 2024, almost all of the new ounces were from deposits discovered decades ago and only recently met the 2Moz criteria.
Since 2020, only six major discoveries have been made, contributing a total of 27Moz in reserves and resources. The peak was in 1995, where 28 major discoveries were made in that year alone.
Major discoveries in the past five years include the 11.1Moz Hemi deposit in Western Australia, now owned by Northern Star Resources (ASX: ASX), and Snowline Gold’s (TSX: SGD) 8.8Moz Valley gold deposit in the Yukon.
In the past 10 years, no more than three major discoveries have been made per year with 2023 and 2024 delivering no discoveries.
The research found that discoveries are also getting smaller. The average discovery size from 2010-19 was 7.7Moz, declining to 4.4Moz since 2020.
S&P analyst Paul Manalo noted that none of the discoveries made in the past 10 years have ranked among the largest 30 gold discoveries, but more recent discoveries could grow over time.
The two most recent discoveries in the top 30, both in 2015, were SolGold’s (LSE: SOLG) Cascabel in Ecuador and Vale (NYSE: VALE) and Antam’s (IDX: ANTM) Onto in Indonesia, both of which are copper-gold deposits.
Since 2020, there have been 213 initial gold resources reported for 137Moz, though only 44% were from greenfields discoveries.
Can higher gold prices drive discovery?
The record gold price is yet to translate to a rise in gold exploration.
According to S&P, gold exploration budgets fell 15% in 2023 and 7% in 2024, mainly due to a fall in exploration by juniors due to tighter capital markets.
While greenfields exploration accounted for around 50% of budgets in the mid-1990s, it slumped to just 19% in 2024.
S&P expects gold exploration to rise this year due to the higher gold price.
It expects some of the excess cash generated by producers to be allocated to increased exploration, though brownfields is likely to remain the focus.
In a positive sign for greenfields exploration by juniors, equity raised on the TSX in the first half of 2025 has already surpassed the total raised in 2024.
“However, even an increase in exploration spending may not contribute to increased discovery rates,” Manalo said.
“As we have seen over the past decades, the industry is reluctant to allocate funds to untested areas, preferring to instead expand known deposits.
“Even the industry's marked shift in strategy of going back to generative programs would take time to produce results. All signs point toward the discovery low continuing for the next several years.”
How much are the majors spending on exploration?
Newmont Corporation (NYSE: NEM)
Earlier this year, Newmont laid claim to the sector’s largest reserve base, reporting year-end gold attributable reserves of 134.1Moz, compared to 135.9Moz at the end of 2023, inclusive of assets held for divestment.
It also reported 89.5Moz of gold equivalent attributable reserves from copper, silver, lead, zinc and molybdenum.
Year-end resources stood at 170Moz of gold.
Newmont plans to spend US$275 million on exploration this year, comprising US$250 million at managed operations and US$25 million at non-managed operations.
That represents a slight increase on 2023 and 2024’s expenditure of US$265 million and US$266 million, respectively.
Three-quarters of the spend will be dedicated to near-mine and brownfields exploration, including the Apensu and Subika Underground at Ahafo South and pit extension at Merian, while the remainder will be dedicated to greenfields projects.
Roughly 37% of the budget will be spent in Latin America and the Caribbean, 20% in North America, 20% in Ghana, 16% in Australia and the remainder in Papua New Guinea and other locations.
Agnico Eagle Mines (TSX: AEM)
Agnico reported 2024 year-end reserves of 54.3Moz of gold, up 0.9% and a record for the company, while resources stood at 79.2Moz.
The company is planning a big jump in capitalised and expensed exploration expenditure from US$184 million in 2024 to US$290-310 million this year.
Exploration priorities for 2025 include mineral resource conversion and expansion at the Detour Lake underground project and East Gouldie at Canadian Malartic, as well as Hope Bay.
The company has also continued to make a flurry of investments in smaller explorers since the start of the year, including Collective Mining (TSX: CNL), Cartier Resources (TSXV: ECR), Rupert Resources (ASX: RUP), Foran Mining Corporation (TSX: FOM), Azimut Exploration (TSXV: AZM) and Aurion Resources (TSXV: AU).
Barrick Mining Corporation (TSX: ABX)
Barrick increased its attributable proven and probable gold reserves by 23%, or 17.4Moz before depletion, to 89Moz as of the end of 2024, representing the fourth consecutive year of replacing annual depletion at a 4% higher grade.
Barrick has added 111Moz of attributable gold equivalent reserves at a cost of approximately $10 per ounce since the end of 2019.
The company’s resource base stands at 221Moz of gold.
Barrick has set its 2025 exploration guidance at US$220-240 million, up from US$190 million last year.
The company has been testing new greenfields targets across Canada, Nevada, Peru and Tanzania.
Barrick says it is on track to replace more than 80% of the gold it mines this year, with a rolling three-year average of more than 500% replacement of gold equivalent ounces.
Kinross Gold Corp (TSX: K)
Kinross most recently reported reserves of 21.9Moz of gold and resources of 39.1Moz.
In 2024, Kinross spent US$166.4 million on exploration, comprising 318,000m of drilling.
Around 85% of the drilling was on the company’s existing projects across the US, Canada, Mauritania, Chile and Brazil.
The remainder was on greenfields targets in Canada, the US and Finland with roughly 45,000m drilled.
The company has slightly increased its 2025 exploration budget to US$175 million.
Since the start of the year, Kinross has invested in US-focused explorers Relevant Gold Corp (TSXV: RGC) and Eminent Gold Corp (TSXV: EMNT).
Gold Fields (JSE: GFI)
Gold Fields reported 2024 reserves of 44.3Moz of gold and resources of 42Moz of gold, up 1.7Moz and 1.5Moz on a year earlier.
In 2024, Gold Fields spent US$72 million on near-mine exploration and a further US$12 million on the advanced Windfall project for 294km of drilling.
The bulk of the spend, or US$53 million, was spent in Australia.
The company has budgeted US$104 million for near-mine exploration and resource conversion, of which US$65 million will be spent in Australia.
Gold Fields also has active greenfields exploration programs in Australia, Chile, Peru and Canada.
AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE: AU)
AngloGold’s reserves increased from 28.1Moz of gold at the end of 2023 to 31.2Moz at the end of 2024, while resources increased from 106.3Moz to 122.1Moz.
Last year, the company spent US$156.3 million on brownfields exploration for 1039km of drilling, as well as US$79.9 million on its Nevada projects for 135km.
In 2024, AngloGold spent US$47.6 million on greenfields exploration across Australia, Argentina, Brazil, Côte d’Ivoire, Egypt, Tanzania, and the United States.
The company is already tracking ahead of those figures this year, spending US$80.4 million on brownfields exploration in the first six months of the year for 434km of drilling.
AngloGold also spent US$24.1 million on 45km of drilling at the Nevada projects.
During the half, AngloGold spent US$28.94 million on greenfields exploration activities in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Tanzania, Egypt and the US.
Northern Star Resources (ASX: NST)
As of March 31, 2025, Northern Star reported reserves of 22.3Moz, up 1.4Moz, and resources of 70.7Moz, up 9.4Moz.
The figures do not yet include the newly acquired Hemi project.
The company said it added new resources at a cost of A$20/oz.
In the 12 months to June 30, Northern Star spent A$255 million on exploration.
Its exploration budget for the 12 months to June 30, 2026, is A$225 million, of which A$48 million will be spent at its largest operation, KCGM.